Modelling A.I. in Economics

Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the RJF^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 36

Key Points

  1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for RJF^B stock price prediction process.
  2. Chi-Square
  3. Can machine learning predict?
  4. Investment Risk
  5. What is the use of Markov decision process?

RJF^B Stock Price Forecast

We consider Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of RJF^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RJF^B Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Chi-Square)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RJF^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of RJF^B stock holders

a:Best response for RJF^B target price


Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

RJF^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based RJF^B Stock Prediction Model

  1. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
  2. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
  3. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  4. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

RJF^B Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2B2
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetB3C
Leverage RatiosCaa2B1
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
  3. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  4. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  5. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  6. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
  7. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is RJF^B stock expected to rise?
A: RJF^B stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square and it is concluded that dominant strategy for RJF^B stock is Hold
Q: Is RJF^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold RJF^B Stock.
Q: Is Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Raymond James Financial Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.375% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Series B Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RJF^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for RJF^B is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for RJF^B stock?
A: RJF^B target price forecast: Hold

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