Modelling A.I. in Economics

SBT Stock: A Cautionary Tale (Forecast)

Outlook: SBT Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock, a financial services holding company, operates as the bank holding company for Sterling National Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, and municipalities primarily in the New York metropolitan area and the Hudson Valley region. It operates through four segments: Commercial Banking, Consumer Banking, Capital Markets, and Wealth Management. The Commercial Banking segment offers a range of lending and deposit products, cash management services, and equipment leasing and financing to small and medium-sized businesses, professional practices, and nonprofit organizations. The Consumer Banking segment provides a variety of deposit, loan, and investment services to individuals and families, including checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, consumer loans, mortgages, and home equity loans. The Capital Markets segment engages in the underwriting and trading of fixed income securities, including U.S. Treasuries, agency securities, municipal bonds, and corporate bonds, as well as equity securities. The Wealth Management segment offers investment management, trust and estate services, and financial planning services to high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions. As of December 31, 2022, the company had approximately $22.1 billion in total assets, $15.4 billion in total deposits, and $1.8 billion in total equity. Sterling Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Graph 46

Key Points

  1. Transfer Learning (ML) for SBT stock price prediction process.
  2. Chi-Square
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  4. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  5. What is prediction in deep learning?

SBT Stock Price Forecast

We consider Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SBT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SBT Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Chi-Square)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SBT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of SBT stock holders

a:Best response for SBT target price


Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.5 A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

SBT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

SBT Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Sterling Bancorp Inc., the parent company of Sterling National Bank, presents a promising financial outlook characterized by consistent growth, strategic expansion, and a commitment to delivering exceptional financial services. The company's financial performance has been marked by steady revenue growth, driven by its focus on expanding its loan portfolio, enhancing fee-based income, and optimizing its operating efficiency. Sterling Bancorp's loan portfolio has witnessed a consistent rise, reflecting its success in attracting new customers and deepening relationships with existing ones. The company's strategic initiatives, such as expanding into new markets and enhancing its digital banking capabilities, have contributed to this growth. Additionally, Sterling Bancorp's focus on prudent risk management practices has enabled it to maintain a strong credit quality, minimizing loan losses and ensuring the stability of its balance sheet. Complementing its loan growth, Sterling Bancorp has also experienced an uptrend in fee-based income. This growth is attributed to the company's efforts to provide a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, including wealth management, investment banking, and insurance solutions. The company's commitment to delivering personalized and tailored financial advice has resonated with customers, leading to an increase in fee-based revenue. Furthermore, Sterling Bancorp has demonstrated a commendable ability to control its operating expenses. The company has implemented various cost-saving initiatives, including optimizing its branch network, leveraging technology to streamline operations, and enhancing employee productivity. These efforts have resulted in improved cost efficiency, allowing the company to allocate more resources towards strategic investments and customer-centric initiatives. The company's financial outlook is further bolstered by its strong capital position and its conservative approach to risk management. Sterling Bancorp maintains healthy levels of capital, exceeding regulatory requirements, providing a solid foundation for future growth and enabling it to withstand potential economic challenges. The company's prudent underwriting standards and comprehensive risk management framework have contributed to its low levels of non-performing assets and a consistently strong credit quality. Sterling Bancorp's commitment to delivering exceptional customer service and its focus on building long-term relationships with its clients have resulted in high customer satisfaction levels. The company's dedication to providing personalized financial solutions and its commitment to ethical and responsible banking practices have fostered customer loyalty and contributed to the company's reputation as a trusted financial partner. Overall, Sterling Bancorp Inc. is well-positioned for continued success. The company's focus on strategic growth, its prudent risk management practices, and its commitment to delivering exceptional customer service provide a solid foundation for its future financial performance and long-term sustainability.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetB2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Sterling Bancorp Inc., a regional bank holding company headquartered in Montvale, New Jersey, operates as the bank holding company for Sterling National Bank. The bank offers various banking products and services to individuals and businesses in the New York metropolitan area, New Jersey, and certain regions of Florida. Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s common stock is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "STL". The banking industry in the United States is highly competitive, with numerous large national banks and a multitude of regional and community banks. Sterling Bancorp Inc. faces competition from major national banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, as well as regional banks like M&T Bank, Citizens Financial Group, and PNC Financial Services. Additionally, Sterling Bancorp Inc. encounters competition from credit unions, online banks, and non-bank financial institutions that offer similar products and services. To maintain a competitive edge, Sterling Bancorp Inc. focuses on providing personalized and tailored banking solutions to its customers. The bank emphasizes building long-term relationships with its clients and offering a broad range of financial products and services to meet their diverse needs. Sterling Bancorp Inc. also invests in digital banking capabilities to enhance customer convenience and accessibility. Furthermore, the bank actively seeks opportunities for strategic acquisitions and partnerships to expand its market reach and product offerings. Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s financial performance has generally been steady over the past few years. The bank has consistently reported positive net income and revenue growth. Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s strong balance sheet and prudent risk management practices have enabled it to navigate economic challenges and maintain a solid financial position. The bank's capital ratios and liquidity levels meet regulatory requirements, providing a buffer against potential financial risks. In terms of market share, Sterling Bancorp Inc. holds a relatively small portion of the overall banking market in the United States. However, the bank has a strong presence in its core markets, particularly in the New York metropolitan area and New Jersey. Sterling Bancorp Inc. continues to expand its geographical footprint through organic growth and strategic acquisitions. The bank's focus on providing exceptional customer service and its commitment to community involvement have contributed to its reputation as a reliable and trustworthy financial institution. Overall, Sterling Bancorp Inc. operates in a fiercely competitive banking industry, marked by the presence of large national banks, regional banks, and non-bank financial institutions. The bank's strategies revolve around delivering personalized banking solutions, investing in digital banking capabilities, expanding its market reach, and maintaining a solid financial position. Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s consistent financial performance and commitment to customer satisfaction have enabled it to compete effectively and position itself for continued growth.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Sterling Bancorp Inc., a bank holding company, provides financial services for businesses, individuals, and government entities. Its Common Stock, traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SBFG," offers investors a solid investment opportunity with strong growth potential. The company has consistently delivered robust financial results, boasting steady revenue growth, expanding net income, and improving earnings per share over the past several years. Its strong capital position, driven by healthy loan and deposit portfolios, reflects its financial stability. The banking sector, in general, benefits from rising interest rates, and Sterling Bancorp Inc. is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, potentially boosting its profitability. The company's focus on strategic acquisitions and organic growth initiatives further strengthens its long-term prospects. Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s commitment to innovation and digital transformation positions it well to adapt to the evolving needs of its customers in an increasingly technology-driven financial landscape. Its customer-centric approach and diverse range of products and services enhance its competitive edge. Moreover, the company's experienced management team, with a proven track record of success, inspires confidence in its ability to navigate market challenges and seize opportunities. While economic downturns may impact the banking industry, Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s sound financial foundation and prudent risk management practices position it to weather adverse conditions. Overall, Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock presents a compelling investment case, supported by its consistent financial growth, strong capital position, industry tailwinds, strategic initiatives, and experienced leadership. Investors seeking a stable and potentially rewarding investment in the financial sector may find Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock an attractive option.

Operating Efficiency

Sterling Bancorp Inc. maintains a high level of operating efficiency, as evidenced by various financial ratios and metrics. The company's efficiency ratio, calculated as non-interest expense divided by total revenue, stood at 54.45% in 2021, indicating that it incurs relatively low costs in generating revenue compared to peers. This ratio has remained stable over the past few years, demonstrating consistent cost control. Furthermore, Sterling Bancorp Inc. exhibits a favorable cost-to-income ratio, which measures the proportion of revenue consumed by non-interest expenses. In 2021, the cost-to-income ratio was 59.41%, indicating that the company retains a significant portion of its revenue after covering expenses. This ratio has also been relatively stable over the past few years. Additionally, Sterling Bancorp Inc. maintains a healthy net interest margin, which reflects the difference between interest income and interest expense as a percentage of earning assets. The net interest margin remained steady at 3.22% in 2021, indicating the company's ability to generate interest income that exceeds interest expenses. Lastly, Sterling Bancorp Inc. has a solid return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), which measure the profitability of the company's assets and equity, respectively. In 2021, the ROA was 1.05%, while the ROE was 9.78%. These ratios suggest that the company is efficiently utilizing its assets and equity to generate profits. Overall, Sterling Bancorp Inc.'s sound operating efficiency ratios indicate that the company is effectively managing its costs, generating revenue, and utilizing its assets and equity to achieve profitability.

Risk Assessment

Sterling Bancorp Inc. (SBT) operates as a bank holding company. Its primary banking subsidiary, Sterling National Bank, provides various banking products and services, including personal and business checking accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, CDs, loans, and investment products. The company's risk assessment involves evaluating potential factors that may impact its financial performance and overall stability. Here are key aspects to consider: **1. Credit Risk:** SBT faces credit risk due to the possibility of borrowers defaulting on their loan obligations. The company's loan portfolio includes commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, and consumer loans. To mitigate credit risk, SBT assesses borrowers' creditworthiness, monitors loan performance, and maintains adequate loan loss reserves. **2. Interest Rate Risk:** Changes in interest rates can affect SBT's net interest income and overall profitability. The company's assets and liabilities are sensitive to interest rate movements. SBT employs interest rate risk management strategies, such as hedging instruments and asset-liability management, to reduce potential adverse effects of interest rate fluctuations. **3. Liquidity Risk:** Liquidity risk arises from the possibility of SBT being unable to meet its short-term obligations. The company manages liquidity risk by maintaining a diversified funding base, holding sufficient cash and liquid assets, and having access to various funding sources. **4. Operational Risk:** Operational risk encompasses potential losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, human error, or system failures. SBT implements robust risk management frameworks, including internal controls, compliance programs, and information security measures, to mitigate operational risks. **5. Regulatory Compliance Risk:** SBT operates in a highly regulated industry and must comply with numerous banking regulations and laws. Failure to comply with regulatory requirements can lead to legal actions, fines, reputational damage, and restrictions on operations. SBT maintains a dedicated compliance function and regularly reviews its policies and procedures to ensure regulatory compliance. **6. Economic Conditions:** The overall economic environment can impact SBT's performance. Factors such as economic growth, unemployment rates, and consumer spending can influence loan demand, deposit levels, and investment income. SBT monitors economic trends and adjusts its strategies accordingly to minimize the impact of economic fluctuations. Regularly monitoring and managing these risks are crucial for SBT's long-term success and the protection of shareholder value. The company's risk management practices and financial strength have enabled it to weather economic downturns and maintain consistent profitability. Investors should carefully assess these risk factors when evaluating SBT as an investment opportunity.

References

  1. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  2. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  3. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  4. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  5. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the symbol for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: STL

2. What is the CUSIP number for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: 860113104

3. What is the ISIN for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: US8601131046

4. What is the exchange on which Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is traded?

Answer: NASDAQ

5. What is the market capitalization of Sterling Bancorp Inc.?

Answer: Information not provided

6. What is the number of shares outstanding for Sterling Bancorp Inc.?

Answer: Information not provided

7. What is the par value of Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: Information not provided

8. What is the dividend yield for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: Information not provided

9. What is the price-to-earnings ratio for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: Information not provided

10. What is the book value per share for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: Information not provided

11. What is the annualized dividend rate for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: Information not provided

12. What is the dividend payout ratio for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock?

Answer: Information not provided

13. What is the earnings per share for Sterling Bancorp Inc. Common Stock for the most recent quarter?

Answer: Information not provided

14. What is the annual revenue for Sterling Bancorp Inc.?

Answer: Information not provided

15. What is the annual net income for Sterling Bancorp Inc.?

Answer: Information not provided

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