Modelling A.I. in Economics

SE Stock Forecast: A Sell For The Next 8 Weeks

Outlook: Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Independent T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SE stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 39

Key Points

  1. Active Learning (ML) for SE stock price prediction process.
  2. Independent T-Test
  3. Market Outlook
  4. Prediction Modeling
  5. What is a prediction confidence?

SE Stock Price Forecast

We consider Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SE Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Independent T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of SE stock holders

a:Best response for SE target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 An independent t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two independent samples. In an independent t-test, the data points in each sample are not related to each other. The independent t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The independent t-test is also a two-sample test, which means that it compares the means of two independent samples.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

SE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based SE Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  2. Lifetime expected credit losses are not recognised on a financial instrument simply because it was considered to have low credit risk in the previous reporting period and is not considered to have low credit risk at the reporting date. In such a case, an entity shall determine whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition and thus whether lifetime expected credit losses are required to be recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.5.3.
  3. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.
  4. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

SE Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowB1B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  2. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  3. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  4. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  5. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  6. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is SE stock expected to rise?
A: SE stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for SE stock is Sell
Q: Is SE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SE Stock.
Q: Is Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Sea Limited American Depositary Shares each representing one Class A Ordinary Share is Sell and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SE stock?
A: The consensus rating for SE is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for SE stock?
A: SE target price forecast: Sell

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