Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy CFG^D Right Now? (Forecast)

Outlook: Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CFG^D stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 45

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) for CFG^D stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  4. Probability Distribution
  5. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

CFG^D Stock Price Forecast

We consider Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CFG^D stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CFG^D Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CFG^D stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CFG^D stock holders

a:Best response for CFG^D target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CFG^D Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) based CFG^D Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity shall apply Prepayment Features with Negative Compensation (Amendments to IFRS 9) retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.30–7.2.34
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
  3. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
  4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CFG^D Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Income StatementBaa2Ba1
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowB3B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. T. Morimura, M. Sugiyama, M. Kashima, H. Hachiya, and T. Tanaka. Nonparametric return distribution ap- proximation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 799–806, 2010
  2. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  3. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  4. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  5. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  6. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  7. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is CFG^D stock expected to rise?
A: CFG^D stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for CFG^D stock is Sell
Q: Is CFG^D stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CFG^D Stock.
Q: Is Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Citizens Financial Group Inc. Depositary Shares each representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of 6.350% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series D is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CFG^D stock?
A: The consensus rating for CFG^D is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for CFG^D stock?
A: CFG^D target price forecast: Sell

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