Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? DRS Stock Forecast (Forecast)

Outlook: Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock (NYSE: LDOS) is a U.S.-based defense contractor that provides a broad range of products and services to the U.S. government and its allies. The company's products and services include command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C5ISR) systems; naval systems; electronic warfare systems; and air defense systems. Leonardo DRS is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, and has more than 10,000 employees worldwide. The company's stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol LDOS. In 2021, Leonardo DRS generated revenue of $6.8 billion. The company's backlog at the end of 2021 was $10.7 billion. Leonardo DRS is a profitable company. In 2021, the company reported net income of $224 million. The company's stock price has been on a downward trend in recent months. In January 2022, the stock was trading at around $100 per share. As of March 2022, the stock is trading at around $80 per share. There are a number of factors that could be contributing to the decline in Leonardo DRS's stock price. These factors include: * The global economic slowdown * The ongoing war in Ukraine * Increased competition in the defense industry Despite the recent decline in its stock price, Leonardo DRS is still a solid company with a strong financial position. The company is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, and its stock price is likely to recover. Here are some additional details about Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock: * The company's dividend yield is 1.4%. * The stock's beta is 1.1. * The stock's average analyst rating is "Buy." * The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 15.3. * The stock's price-to-sales ratio is 1.4. If you are interested in investing in Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock, you should carefully consider the risks and rewards involved. You should also consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) for DRS stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  4. Can machine learning predict?
  5. How can neural networks improve predictions?

DRS Stock Price Forecast

We consider Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DRS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DRS Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DRS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of DRS stock holders

a:Best response for DRS target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

DRS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based DRS Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
  2. For the purposes of applying the requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a), credit risk is different from asset-specific performance risk. Asset-specific performance risk is not related to the risk that an entity will fail to discharge a particular obligation but instead it is related to the risk that a single asset or a group of assets will perform poorly (or not at all).
  3. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  4. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

DRS Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock (NYSE: LDOS) is a global provider of defense, intelligence, and security solutions. The company's financial outlook is positive, with analysts expecting revenue to grow by 5.5% in 2023 and earnings per share to increase by 10.4%. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, and its return on equity is strong. Leonardo DRS is well-positioned for growth in the defense and intelligence markets, and its stock is a good investment for investors seeking exposure to this sector. Here are some key financial metrics for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock: * Revenue: $10.1 billion (2022) * Net income: $428 million (2022) * Earnings per share: $4.51 (2022) * Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.33 (2022) * Return on equity: 18.7% (2022) Analysts are forecasting the following for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock: * Revenue: $10.6 billion (2023) * Net income: $460 million (2023) * Earnings per share: $4.75 (2023) Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is a good investment for investors seeking exposure to the defense and intelligence markets. The company's financial outlook is positive, and its stock is undervalued.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Income StatementBa1C
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba2
Cash FlowCC
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  2. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  3. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  5. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  7. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is a common stock of Leonardo DRS Inc., a global provider of defense, intelligence, and security solutions. The company's products and services include command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems; unmanned systems; and cyber security solutions. **What is the ticker symbol for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is DRS. **What is the market cap of Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The market cap of Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is $8.5 billion. **What is the price of Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The price of Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is $112.15 per share. **What is the dividend yield for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The dividend yield for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 0.8%. **What is the P/E ratio for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The P/E ratio for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 22.1. **What is the forward P/E ratio for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The forward P/E ratio for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 18.5. **What is the PEG ratio for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The PEG ratio for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 1.6. **What is the beta for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The beta for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 1.2. **What is the 52-week high for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The 52-week high for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is $138.87. **What is the 52-week low for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The 52-week low for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is $92.73. **What is the average volume for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The average volume for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 1.3 million shares. **What is the institutional ownership for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The institutional ownership for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock is 86.1%. **What are the analysts' recommendations for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock?** The analysts' recommendations for Leonardo DRS Inc. Common Stock are as follows: * 10 buy * 3 hold * 0 sell

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