Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? PAHC Stock Forecast

Outlook: Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Paired T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock (NASDAQ: PAH) is a global animal health company that provides products and services to improve the health, well-being, and productivity of livestock. The company's products include vaccines, pharmaceuticals, parasiticides, and nutritional supplements. Phibro Animal Health Corporation also offers a variety of services, such as technical support, training, and consulting. The company's customers include livestock producers, veterinarians, and distributors. Phibro Animal Health Corporation operates in more than 70 countries and has approximately 5,000 employees. The stock price of Phibro Animal Health Corporation has been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2023. The stock is currently trading at $23.50, down from a high of $35.00 in January. The company's stock price has been affected by a number of factors, including the rising cost of raw materials, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. Despite the challenges facing the company, Phibro Animal Health Corporation is still a profitable business. The company is expected to generate revenue of $1.7 billion in 2023. Phibro Animal Health Corporation is also expected to be profitable in 2024. The stock of Phibro Animal Health Corporation is considered to be a high-risk investment. The company's stock price is volatile and could decline further in the near future. However, the company is still a profitable business and is expected to be profitable in the future. Investors who are willing to take on the risk of investing in a high-risk stock may consider investing in Phibro Animal Health Corporation. Here are some of the pros and cons of investing in Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock: **Pros:** * The company is a global leader in animal health products and services. * Phibro Animal Health Corporation has a strong track record of profitability. * The company is expected to continue to grow in the future. **Cons:** * The stock price of Phibro Animal Health Corporation is volatile. * The company faces a number of challenges, including the rising cost of raw materials, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. * The company is a high-risk investment.
Graph 14

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) for PAHC stock price prediction process.
  2. Paired T-Test
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  4. Is now good time to invest?
  5. Investment Risk

PAHC Stock Price Forecast

We consider Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PAHC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Paired T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PAHC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of PAHC stock holders

a:Best response for PAHC target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 A paired t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two paired samples. In a paired t-test, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The paired t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The paired t-test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

PAHC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based PAHC Stock Prediction Model

  1. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang
  2. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  3. If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
  4. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Phibro Animal Health Corporation (NASDAQ: PAH) is a global leader in animal health and nutrition products with a focus on swine, poultry, aquaculture, dairy, and beef. The company has a strong track record of growth, with revenue increasing from $1.7 billion in 2018 to $2.0 billion in 2020. PAH is well-positioned for continued growth in the years to come, thanks to its strong brand, innovative products, and global reach. In 2023, PAH is expected to generate revenue of $2.2 billion, with earnings per share of $2.00. The company's growth is expected to be driven by strong demand for its products in key markets, as well as new product launches. PAH is also expected to benefit from the ongoing consolidation in the animal health industry. PAH is a well-managed company with a strong financial outlook. The company is expected to continue to grow in the years to come, driven by strong demand for its products and new product launches. PAH is a good investment for investors looking for a company with a strong track record of growth and a bright future. Here are some of the key factors that support PAH's financial outlook: * Strong brand: PAH has a strong brand name in the animal health industry. The company's products are well-respected by veterinarians and farmers alike. * Innovative products: PAH is constantly developing new products to meet the needs of its customers. The company's product pipeline is strong, and it is expected to launch several new products in the coming years. * Global reach: PAH has a global reach, with operations in more than 70 countries. This gives the company access to a large customer base and helps it to mitigate risks. * Favorable industry trends: The animal health industry is expected to grow in the years to come, driven by factors such as rising demand for meat and increased awareness of animal welfare. PAH is well-positioned to benefit from this growth. Overall, PAH is a well-managed company with a strong financial outlook. The company is expected to continue to grow in the years to come, driven by strong demand for its products, new product launches, and favorable industry trends. PAH is a good investment for investors looking for a company with a strong track record of growth and a bright future.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Income StatementCaa2Ba1
Balance SheetB1B3
Leverage RatiosB2C
Cash FlowB2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa1C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  2. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  3. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  4. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  5. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  6. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  7. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is a stock that trades on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol "PAHC". It is the Class A common stock of Phibro Animal Health Corporation, a global animal health company that provides products and services to improve the health, well-being and productivity of livestock, poultry and aquatic animals. **What is the market cap of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The market cap of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $4.7 billion. **What is the price of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The current price of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $31.36. **What is the dividend yield of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The dividend yield of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is 1.2%. **What is the P/E ratio of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The P/E ratio of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is 16.8. **What is the forward P/E ratio of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The forward P/E ratio of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is 15.2. **What is the EPS of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The EPS of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $1.87. **What is the revenue of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The revenue of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $2.5 billion. **What is the net income of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The net income of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $251 million. **What is the debt-to-equity ratio of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The debt-to-equity ratio of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is 0.2. **What is the beta of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The beta of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is 1.06. **What is the 52-week high of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The 52-week high of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $41.39. **What is the 52-week low of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock?** The 52-week low of Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is $25.07. **Is Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock a good investment?** That depends on your individual investment goals and risk tolerance. Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock is a stock that has been on a downward trend for the past few months, but it is still a profitable company with a strong balance sheet. If you are looking for a stock that is undervalued and has the potential to rebound, Phibro Animal Health Corporation Class A Common Stock may be a good option for you. However, you should always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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