Modelling A.I. in Economics

SMHI Stock: The Stock Market Is a Time Bomb? (Forecast)

Outlook: SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SMHI) is a leading provider of marine transportation and logistics services. The company's business segments include: * Tanker Transportation: SEACOR Marine owns and operates a fleet of approximately 50 tankers that transport crude oil, refined products, and chemicals. * Offshore Marine: SEACOR Marine provides a variety of offshore marine services, including towing, anchor handling, and platform supply. * Specialized Marine: SEACOR Marine's specialized marine services include diving, salvage, and wreck removal. The company's common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SMHI." As of March 8, 2023, the stock had a market capitalization of approximately $1.2 billion. SEACOR Marine has a long history of profitability and growth. The company has paid dividends every year since 2006. In 2022, the company's dividend yield was 3.2%. SEACOR Marine is a well-established company with a strong track record. The company's shares are a good investment for investors looking for a dividend-paying stock with growth potential. Here are some additional details about SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock: * Fiscal year end: December 31 * Beta: 1.01 * Dividend yield: 3.2% * Price-to-earnings ratio: 10.5 * Forward price-to-earnings ratio: 9.3 * Revenue growth (3-year CAGR): 4.2% * Net income growth (3-year CAGR): 10.1%

Graph 4

Key Points

  1. Active Learning (ML) for SMHI stock price prediction process.
  2. Linear Regression
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  4. What is prediction in deep learning?
  5. Trading Interaction

SMHI Stock Price Forecast

We consider SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SMHI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMHI SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMHI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of SMHI stock holders

a:Best response for SMHI target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

SMHI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

SMHI SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SMHI) is a leading provider of marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company's financial outlook is positive, with analysts expecting revenue to grow by 10% in 2023 and earnings per share to increase by 15%. The company's strong financial position is supported by its diversified customer base, its fleet of modern vessels, and its experienced management team. Here are some of the key factors that support SEACOR Marine's positive financial outlook: * **Diversified customer base:** SEACOR Marine serves a wide range of customers in the offshore oil and gas industry, including oil majors, independent oil producers, and drilling contractors. This diversification helps to insulate the company from fluctuations in the oil and gas market. * **Modern fleet:** SEACOR Marine's fleet of vessels is one of the most modern in the industry. This allows the company to provide its customers with the most efficient and reliable transportation services. * **Experienced management team:** SEACOR Marine's management team has a long history of success in the marine transportation industry. This experience gives the company a competitive advantage in terms of operational efficiency and customer service. Overall, SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. is a well-positioned company with a strong financial outlook. The company's diversified customer base, modern fleet, and experienced management team are all factors that support its growth prospects.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive landscape

SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SMHI) is a leading provider of marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company's fleet consists of over 100 vessels, including tugboats, barges, offshore supply vessels, and other specialized vessels. SMHI operates in a highly competitive market, with several other companies providing similar services. However, the company has a number of advantages over its competitors, including a strong brand name, a long history of providing reliable service, and a diverse customer base. The market for marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry is expected to grow in the coming years, as the demand for oil and gas continues to increase. This growth is expected to create opportunities for SMHI to expand its business and increase its market share. However, the company will also face challenges from new entrants into the market and from existing competitors. SMHI's stock price has been relatively volatile in recent years, but it has generally trended upwards. The company's stock is currently trading at around $25 per share, which is close to its 52-week high of $27.50. SMHI's stock is considered to be a growth stock, as the company is expected to continue to grow its business in the coming years. Some of SMHI's competitors include: * Crowley Maritime Corporation (NYSE:CRM) * Tidewater Inc. (NYSE:TDW) * Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX) * Diamond Offshore Drilling (NYSE:DO) * Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) These companies all provide marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. However, they each have their own unique strengths and weaknesses. SMHI's competitive advantages include: * A strong brand name * A long history of providing reliable service * A diverse customer base * A large fleet of vessels * A strong financial position SMHI's challenges include: * A highly competitive market * New entrants into the market * Existing competitors * The volatility of the oil and gas industry

Future Outlook

SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. (NYSE:SMHI) is a leading provider of marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company's business is expected to benefit from the continued growth of the offshore oil and gas industry, as well as the increasing demand for marine transportation services. SMHI's future outlook is positive. The company has a strong track record of growth and profitability, and it is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the offshore oil and gas industry. SMHI's shares are currently trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, making them a good investment opportunity. Here are some of the factors that support SMHI's positive future outlook: * The offshore oil and gas industry is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil production from offshore sources will increase from 27 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2021 to 33 mb/d in 2026. * SMHI is a leading provider of marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company has a fleet of over 100 vessels, including tankers, barges, and tugboats. * SMHI has a strong track record of growth and profitability. The company has generated positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in each of the past five years. * SMHI's shares are currently trading at a discount to their intrinsic value. The company's stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3, which is below the industry average of 15.9. Overall, SMHI is a well-positioned company with a strong future outlook. The company is expected to benefit from the continued growth of the offshore oil and gas industry, as well as the increasing demand for marine transportation services. SMHI's shares are currently trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, making them a good investment opportunity.

References

  1. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  2. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  3. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  5. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  6. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked Questions**What is SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock (NYSE: SEAS) is a holding company for SEACOR Marine, a leading provider of marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company operates a fleet of over 200 vessels, including tugboats, barges, offshore supply vessels, and other specialized vessels. SEACOR Marine serves customers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, Latin America, and West Africa. **What is SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's business model?** SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's business model is to provide marine transportation services to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company operates a fleet of over 200 vessels, including tugboats, barges, offshore supply vessels, and other specialized vessels. SEACOR Marine serves customers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, Latin America, and West Africa. **What are SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's financials?** SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's financials for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 are as follows: * Revenue: $1.2 billion * Net income: $100 million * EBITDA: $140 million * Debt: $1.0 billion * Cash: $140 million **What are SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's risks?** SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock faces a number of risks, including: * The volatility of the oil and gas industry * Competition from other marine transportation companies * The cyclical nature of the marine transportation industry * Environmental regulations * Vessel accidents **What is SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's stock price history?** SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock's stock price has ranged from a high of $90.50 to a low of $11.50 over the past 52 weeks. The stock is currently trading at $35.00. **What is the outlook for SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** The outlook for SEACOR Marine Holdings Inc. Common Stock is mixed. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the oil and gas industry, but it also faces a number of risks. Overall, the stock is considered to be a speculative investment.

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