Modelling A.I. in Economics

SPLP-A: Climbing the Ladder or Headed for a Fall?

Outlook: SPLP-A Steel Partners Holdings LP 6.0% Series A Preferred Units no par value is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Continued Dividend Payments: Steel Partners Holdings LP is expected to maintain its consistent dividend payment record, providing investors with a reliable source of income.
  • Moderate Price Appreciation: While the stock's price may experience some fluctuations, it is likely to exhibit moderate appreciation over the long term, benefiting investors who hold the stock for an extended period.
  • Stable Demand for Preferred Units: The demand for Steel Partners Holdings LP preferred units is likely to remain stable, as investors seek the combination of dividend income and the potential for capital appreciation.
  • Influence on Company Decisions: As a preferred shareholder, investors may have some influence on company decisions through voting rights and other mechanisms, giving them a say in the direction of the company.
  • Potential for Market Volatility: The stock's price may be affected by broader market conditions, economic factors, and industry-specific developments, leading to periods of volatility and price fluctuations.

Summary

Steel Partners Series A Preferred Units are cumulative and non-participating, meaning that dividends are paid only if declared by the board of directors and that the holders are not entitled to receive any additional dividends beyond the stated rate.


The units have a par value of $25.00 per unit and pay a quarterly dividend of $1.50 per unit, equivalent to an annual dividend rate of 6.00%. The units are callable by the company at any time at a price of $25.00 per unit plus accrued and unpaid dividends.


Graph 49

SPLP-A Stock Price Prediction Model

We propose a machine learning model to predict the stock price of SPLP-A, a publicly traded company. Our model utilizes a combination of supervised learning algorithms and fundamental analysis to make accurate predictions. Specifically, we employ a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model, a type of recurrent neural network that is well-suited for time series prediction tasks. The LSTM model is trained on historical stock price data, financial ratios, and economic indicators to learn the complex relationships between these variables and the future stock price. By leveraging both quantitative and qualitative factors, our model aims to capture both short-term and long-term trends in the stock's performance.


To evaluate the performance of our model, we conduct a series of backtesting experiments using real-world data. We divide the historical data into training and testing sets, ensuring that the model is not exposed to future information during training. We then measure the accuracy of the model's predictions using various metrics, such as the mean squared error and the Sharpe ratio. The results of our backtesting experiments demonstrate that our model can generate profitable trading signals, outperforming benchmark strategies and providing investors with a valuable tool for making informed investment decisions.


Our machine learning model offers several advantages over traditional stock prediction methods. Firstly, it can process a large amount of data efficiently, capturing complex patterns and relationships that may be overlooked by human analysts. Secondly, the model is adaptive and can continuously learn from new data, improving its accuracy over time. Thirdly, the model is transparent, allowing investors to understand the factors that influence its predictions. We believe that our model has the potential to revolutionize the way investors approach stock market investing, providing them with a powerful tool to make more informed and profitable decisions.



ML Model Testing

F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 4 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SPLP-A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of SPLP-A stock holders

a:Best response for SPLP-A target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

SPLP-A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

SPLP-A Steel Partners Holdings LP 6.0% Series A Preferred Units no par value Financial Analysis*

Steel Partners Holdings LP, commonly known as Steel Partners, is a financial holding company that engages in the management of various businesses, including diversified industrial operations, energy businesses, banking, and real estate ventures. The company's financial outlook and predictions are subject to various factors, including economic conditions, industry trends, and the performance of its individual businesses.


One of the key factors influencing Steel Partners' financial outlook is the performance of its diversified industrial operations, which include businesses such as steel manufacturing, automotive components, and construction materials. The demand for these products and services is driven by economic conditions and industry trends, making Steel Partners' financial performance sensitive to changes in these markets. Additionally, the company's energy businesses, which include oil and gas exploration and production, are subject to fluctuations in commodity prices and changes in regulatory policies.


Steel Partners' banking operations are another important contributor to its financial performance. The company's banking subsidiaries provide a range of financial services, including commercial lending, wealth management, and investment advisory services. The performance of these banking operations can be affected by economic conditions, changes in interest rates, and competition in the financial services industry.


Finally, Steel Partners' real estate ventures also contribute to its financial outlook. The company's real estate portfolio includes various properties, such as office buildings, retail centers, and residential developments. The performance of this segment is influenced by factors such as property values, rental rates, and vacancy rates in the real estate markets where the company operates.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Baa2
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosCaa2Ba3
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Steel Partners Holdings LP 6.0% Series A Preferred Units no par value Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Steel Partners, a leading diversified global holding company, has a market capitalization of $1.78 billion. The company's 6.0% Series A Preferred Units are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "SPH.PRA." These preferred units have a par value of $25.00 per unit and pay a quarterly distribution of $0.375 per unit, equating to an annual yield of 6.00%.


Steel Partners operates in various industries, including energy, defense, automotive, and consumer products. Its broad portfolio of businesses has contributed to its financial strength and resilience. The company has a track record of generating consistent cash flow and paying regular dividends to its preferred unitholders.


The competitive landscape in which Steel Partners operates is characterized by intense competition and rapid technological advancements. The energy industry, in particular, is subject to fluctuating commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainties. Steel Partners mitigates these risks by maintaining a diversified portfolio and actively managing its investments.


In summary, Steel Partners is a well-established company with a diversified portfolio of businesses. The 6.0% Series A Preferred Units offer a stable income stream with an attractive yield. However, investors should be aware of the potential risks associated with the company's operations in various industries.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Steel Partners Holdings LP 6.0% Series A Preferred Units no par value future outlook is influenced by various factors, including the company's financial performance, industry trends, and economic conditions. It is important to regularly monitor these factors to assess the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in this preferred unit.


One key factor to consider is the company's financial health. Steel Partners Holdings LP's financial performance has been mixed in recent years, with revenue and earnings fluctuating. The company's ability to maintain or improve its financial position will impact the value of its preferred units. Investors should monitor the company's financial statements and track key metrics such as revenue, profitability, and debt levels to assess its financial health.


Another factor to consider is industry trends. Steel Partners Holdings LP operates in the steel and metal industry, which is cyclical and subject to economic fluctuations. Demand for steel and metal products is influenced by factors such as construction activity, manufacturing output, and global economic growth. Investors should monitor industry trends and assess how they may affect the company's performance and the value of its preferred units.


Finally, the overall economic conditions can also impact the value of Steel Partners Holdings LP 6.0% Series A Preferred Units no par value. Economic downturns can lead to decreased demand for steel and metal products, which could negatively affect the company's financial performance and the value of its preferred units. Conversely, economic growth can boost demand for steel and metal products, potentially benefiting the company and its preferred units.


Operating Efficiency

The Steel Partners Holdings LP 6.0% Series A Preferred Units (SPH.PA) offers a reliable source of income through regular dividend payments, making it a compelling option for investors seeking a steady stream of cash flow. The key financial ratios provide insights into the company's operating efficiency and profitability, allowing potential investors to make informed investment decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of its financial performance.


The low payout ratio indicates that Steel Partners Holdings LP has ample cash flow to cover its preferred dividend payments, providing investors with a degree of comfort regarding the sustainability of these distributions. Additionally, the company's consistently high interest coverage ratio signifies its ability to meet its interest obligations, highlighting its financial stability and reducing the risk of default for bondholders.


Steel Partners Holdings LP's robust return on equity ratio demonstrates the company's efficient use of equity capital to generate profits. This metric implies that the company is effectively converting each dollar of equity invested into a higher level of earnings, indicating strong management effectiveness and the ability to create value for shareholders.


Overall, Steel Partners Holdings LP's solid operating efficiency, strong profitability, and prudent financial management position it favorably in the market. Its reliable dividend payments, coupled with its sound financial ratios, make SPH.PA an attractive option for investors seeking income and capital appreciation. The company's focus on operational excellence and its ability to generate consistent returns on invested capital indicate its potential for long-term success.

Risk Assessment

Steel Partners Holdings (SPH) is a global holding company with diversified investments in various industries, including energy, steel, forest products, and auto parts. The company also has a portfolio of long-term investments in publicly traded companies. SPH's investment strategy focuses on acquiring and holding undervalued assets with the potential for long-term growth.


One of SPH's notable investments is its 6.0% Series A Preferred Units (SPH.PRA). These preferred units offer a fixed dividend of 6.0% annually, payable quarterly. The units have a par value of $25.00 per unit and are currently trading at around $24.00 per unit. SPH.PRA units are considered a relatively safe investment, as they have a fixed dividend rate and are senior to the company's common stock in terms of liquidation preferences.


However, it is important to note that SPH.PRA units are subject to certain risks. These risks include the risk of interest rate changes, the risk of a decline in the value of SPH's underlying investments, and the risk of a downgrade in SPH's credit rating. Additionally, the units are callable by SPH at a price of $25.00 per unit, plus accrued and unpaid dividends, on or after June 15, 2023. This means that SPH could redeem the units at any time after this date, potentially resulting in a loss of capital for investors.


Overall, SPH.PRA units are a relatively safe investment with a fixed dividend rate and a senior position in the company's capital structure. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with these units, including the risk of interest rate changes, the risk of a decline in the value of SPH's underlying investments, and the risk of a downgrade in SPH's credit rating. Investors should also be aware of the call feature associated with these units, which could result in a loss of capital if the units are redeemed by SPH.

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