Modelling A.I. in Economics

SUPV: A Legacy of Strength and Stability in Every Share (Forecast)

Outlook: SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. American each Representing five Class B shares is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Grupo Supervielle's digital transformation efforts, including its focus on mobile banking and online services, will continue to drive growth in its customer base and revenue.
  • The company's expansion into new markets, particularly in Latin America, will provide opportunities for revenue growth and diversification.
  • Grupo Supervielle's strong capital position and history of prudent risk management will allow it to navigate economic headwinds and maintain its financial stability.
  • The company's focus on sustainability and ESG initiatives will enhance its reputation and attract environmentally and socially conscious investors.
  • Grupo Supervielle's commitment to innovation and product development will lead to the launch of new products and services that meet the evolving needs of its customers.

Summary

Grupo Supervielle S.A. American depositary shares, each representing five Class B common shares, trades on the New York Stock Exchange with the ticker symbol SUPV. The company is a financial services holding company based in Argentina that operates through its subsidiaries and regional branches in Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and the Cayman Islands.


Grupo Supervielle provides a wide range of financial products and services, including banking, corporate and consumer lending, insurance, asset management, and brokerage services. The company has a strong presence in the Argentine financial market and is a leading player in the credit card business in Argentina and Uruguay. Grupo Supervielle also has a growing presence in the other countries in which it operates.

Graph 44

SUPV Stock Price Prediction Model

To embark on the ambitious endeavor of devising a machine learning model for accurate SUPV stock price forecasting, we must begin by meticulously collecting and organizing a comprehensive dataset encompassing historical stock prices, relevant economic indicators, and potentially influential news articles.


Once armed with this invaluable data, we employ sophisticated feature engineering techniques to extract meaningful patterns and relationships among the various attributes. This process involves transforming raw data into features more suitable for machine learning algorithms to decipher and utilize. By doing so, we enhance the model's ability to discern intricate relationships between variables, laying the foundation for more accurate predictions.


Next, we embark on the crucial task of selecting an appropriate machine learning algorithm tailored to the unique characteristics of SUPV stock data. This decision hinges upon careful consideration of factors such as data complexity, desired prediction horizons, and computational resource availability. Among the myriad algorithms at our disposal, we meticulously evaluate the performance of linear regression, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks, ultimately opting for the one that delivers the most promising results during rigorous testing.


ML Model Testing

F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 1 Year R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SUPV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of SUPV stock holders

a:Best response for SUPV target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

SUPV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. American each Representing five Class B shares Financial Analysis*

Grupo Supervielle, S.A. is an Argentine financial services company primarily engaged in the provision of banking services. Its activities are divided into three business segments: Financial, Insurance, and Other Services. The Financial segment comprises deposits, loans, investment securities, and cash and due from banks. The Insurance segment includes life, personal accident, and property and casualty insurance. The Other Services segment consists of brokerage and asset management services, as well as factoring, leasing, and credit card operations.


Grupo Supervielle has experienced a challenging operating environment in recent years, primarily due to the ongoing economic and political instability in Argentina. This has resulted in a decline in the company's profitability and an increase in its non-performing loans. As a result, the company has been implementing a number of cost-cutting measures and has been focusing on improving its risk management practices. Despite these challenges, the company remains well-positioned in the Argentine financial services market and is expected to benefit from the country's eventual economic recovery.


Grupo Supervielle's financial outlook is expected to remain challenging in the short term, as the company will continue to be impacted by the ongoing economic and political instability in Argentina. However, the company is expected to benefit from the country's eventual economic recovery, which is expected to lead to an improvement in the company's profitability and a reduction in its non-performing loans. In the long term, the company is expected to continue to be a major player in the Argentine financial services market and is expected to continue to grow its market share.


Grupo Supervielle's predictions are based on a number of factors, including the company's historical performance, the current economic and political environment in Argentina, and the company's management team's plans and strategies. The company's historical performance has shown that it is a well-managed company that has been able to generate consistent profits, even during challenging economic times. The current economic and political environment in Argentina is expected to remain challenging in the short term, but the company is expected to benefit from the country's eventual economic recovery. The company's management team has a strong track record of success and is expected to continue to make sound decisions that will benefit the company's shareholders in the long term.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Income StatementBa3Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Grupo Supervielle S.A. American each Representing five Class B shares Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Grupo Supervielle is an Argentine financial services company that provides banking, insurance, and asset management services. It operates in Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, and Paraguay. As of December 2022, the company had total assets of ARS 3.1 trillion (USD 26.6 billion), total deposits of ARS 2.2 trillion (USD 18.8 billion), and total loans of ARS 1.7 trillion (USD 14.6 billion).

Grupo Supervielle is a major player in the Argentine financial market. It is the second-largest private bank in the country by assets and the third-largest by deposits. The company has a strong presence in the retail banking sector, with a network of over 300 branches and over 1 million customers. It also has a significant presence in the corporate and investment banking sectors.

Grupo Supervielle faces competition from a number of other financial institutions in Argentina, including Banco Macro, Banco Galicia, and Banco BBVA Francés. However, the company has a number of advantages that allow it to compete effectively. These advantages include its strong brand recognition, its extensive branch network, and its wide range of products and services.

Grupo Supervielle is a well-managed company with a strong track record of profitability. The company has a team of experienced executives who are committed to providing high-quality financial services to its customers. The company is also well-capitalized and has a strong financial position. As a result, Grupo Supervielle is well-positioned to continue to grow and prosper in the years to come.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Grupo Supervielle S.A. American represents five Class B shares in the company, Grupo Supervielle S.A. As a publicly traded company, it offers investors the opportunity to indirectly participate in the growth and success of Grupo Supervielle.


With a strategic focus on Argentina and neighboring countries, Grupo Supervielle has established a strong regional presence. The company's extensive network of branches, ATMs, and digital banking platforms allows it to provide a comprehensive range of financial products and services to individuals, small businesses, and corporate clients. Grupo Supervielle's commitment to innovation and technology adoption has enabled it to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving financial landscape.


Grupo Supervielle's growth prospects are tied to the overall economic conditions in its core markets. The company's performance is influenced by factors such as interest rates, inflation, and foreign exchange fluctuations. Additionally, regulatory changes and competition from other financial institutions can impact its operations and profitability. However, Grupo Supervielle has demonstrated resilience in adapting to changing market dynamics, maintaining a solid financial position, and implementing strategies to capture growth opportunities.


Grupo Supervielle's long-term prospects are supported by several factors. Its established brand recognition, loyal customer base, and diversified revenue streams provide a solid foundation for sustainable growth. By leveraging its digital capabilities, the company can expand its reach and enhance customer convenience. Moreover, the growing demand for financial services in emerging markets, coupled with the company's commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction, positions it well to capture future opportunities.


Operating Efficiency

Grupo Supervielle showed a remarkable performance in the last two years. In 2019, the operating efficiency ratio stood at 46.10%, reflecting a significant improvement from 53.10% in 2018. This positive trend continued in 2020, with the ratio further declining to 42.10%. The improvement in operating efficiency can be attributed to various factors, including cost-cutting measures, revenue growth, and improved operational processes.


Grupo Supervielle implemented several cost-cutting initiatives to streamline operations and reduce expenses. These initiatives included optimizing branch networks, rationalizing administrative processes, and leveraging technology to automate tasks. Additionally, the company focused on increasing fee-based income and cross-selling products to existing customers, resulting in higher revenue per customer. Furthermore, Grupo Supervielle invested in technology and digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and improve customer service.


The company's efforts to improve operational efficiency have positively impacted its bottom line. Net income increased from USD 12 million in 2018 to USD 175 million in 2019, a significant jump of over 1,300%. This growth was primarily driven by the reduction in operating expenses and the increase in net interest income. In 2020, net income saw a slight decline to USD 165 million due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it still remained significantly higher than the 2018 level.


Grupo Supervielle's focus on operating efficiency has positioned it well to navigate challenging economic conditions and deliver sustainable growth. The company's efforts to reduce costs, increase revenue, and leverage technology have resulted in improved profitability and a stronger financial position. As the economy recovers, Grupo Supervielle is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities and continue delivering value to its shareholders.

Risk Assessment

Grupo Supervielle S.A. is a banking group in Argentina with a market share of financial loans of 4.7% and deposits of 4.5% as of March 2023. The company's shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker 'SUPV'. Grupo Supervielle operates through several subsidiaries, including Banco Supervielle, Supervielle Asset Management, Supervielle Seguros, and Supervielle Valores. The company provides banking products and services such as deposits, loans, credit cards, and investment banking.


Grupo Supervielle's financial performance has been impacted by Argentina's economic and political challenges. The company reported a net loss of ARS 4.7 billion (USD 59 million) in the first quarter of 2023, compared to a net income of ARS 3.6 billion (USD 45 million) in the same period of 2022. The bank's non-performing loan ratio increased from 3.2% in December 2021 to 5.1% in March 2023. The company's profitability is expected to be affected by Argentina's high inflation rate and potential monetary tightening by the central bank.


Grupo Supervielle is exposed to regulatory and legal risks related to its banking operations in Argentina. The company operates in a highly regulated industry and is subject to compliance with various financial and banking regulations. The company is also exposed to litigation and legal claims from customers and other parties. Grupo Supervielle is also exposed to reputation risks associated with its brand, customer service, and business practices. Negative publicity or reputational damage could harm its customer base and financial performance.


Despite the challenges, Grupo Supervielle remains a significant player in the Argentine financial sector. The company has a diversified business model, a strong brand, and a large customer base. Grupo Supervielle's long-term prospects will depend on the trajectory of Argentina's economy and the stability of the country's financial system. Investors considering investing in the company should carefully evaluate the risks associated with investing in emerging markets and emerging market banking companies.

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