Modelling A.I. in Economics

TFPM Stock: Set a stop-loss order

Outlook: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TFPM stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 20

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) for TFPM stock price prediction process.
  2. Polynomial Regression
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  4. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  5. How useful are statistical predictions?

TFPM Stock Price Forecast

We consider Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TFPM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Polynomial Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TFPM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of TFPM stock holders

a:Best response for TFPM target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

TFPM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based TFPM Stock Prediction Model

  1. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
  2. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  3. When an entity, consistent with its hedge documentation, frequently resets (ie discontinues and restarts) a hedging relationship because both the hedging instrument and the hedged item frequently change (ie the entity uses a dynamic process in which both the hedged items and the hedging instruments used to manage that exposure do not remain the same for long), the entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component is separately identifiable—only when it initially designates a hedged item in that hedging relationship. A hedged item that has been assessed at the time of its initial designation in the hedging relationship, whether it was at the time of the hedge inception or subsequently, is not reassessed at any subsequent redesignation in the same hedging relationship.
  4. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementCaa2B1
Balance SheetBaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowB2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBa3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  2. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  3. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
  4. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  5. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  6. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  7. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is TFPM stock expected to rise?
A: TFPM stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for TFPM stock is Sell
Q: Is TFPM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TFPM Stock.
Q: Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TFPM stock?
A: The consensus rating for TFPM is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for TFPM stock?
A: TFPM target price forecast: Sell

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