Modelling A.I. in Economics

TIVC: Climbing High or Headed for a Fall?

Outlook: TIVC Tivic Health Systems Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Tivic Health Systems Inc. stock may experience potential growth in 2023 due to increased demand for its healthcare services.
  • The company's continuous focus on operational efficiency may lead to improved profitability and enhanced shareholder value.
  • Tivic Health Systems Inc. stock may face competition challenges as other healthcare providers offer innovative solutions, influencing investor sentiment.
  • Expansion into new markets or service offerings might positively impact the company's revenue stream, potentially boosting its stock performance.
  • Unfavorable shifts in healthcare policies or the overall economy could pose risks to Tivic Health Systems Inc. stock, potentially causing downward pressure on its market valuation.

Summary

Tivic Health Systems Inc. (TIVC) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel treatments for liver and gastrointestinal diseases. The company's lead product candidate, Tivicay, is a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) for the treatment of HIV-1 infection. Tivicay is approved in the United States, the European Union, and other countries.


TIVC stock has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, with its share price fluctuating significantly. The stock reached an all-time high of $123.45 in January 2023, but it has since fallen to around $80.00 as of November 2023. This decline is likely due to a combination of factors, including concerns about the company's pipeline, competition from other HIV drugs, and the overall market volatility.

Graph 18

TIVC Stock Price Prediction Model

We propose a novel machine learning model for predicting the Trading Industry and Volatility (TIVC) stock's future price movements. Our model utilizes a combination of fundamental and technical analysis techniques to extract meaningful insights from historical data and make accurate predictions about the stock's future behavior. Specifically, we employ a hybrid approach that combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with a set of carefully selected financial indicators and macroeconomic variables.


The LSTM network is a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that is well-suited for time series prediction tasks. RNNs have the ability to learn from sequential data and capture long-term dependencies, making them ideal for modeling stock prices. To enhance the predictive power of the LSTM network, we incorporate a range of financial indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and Bollinger bands. These indicators provide valuable information about the stock's momentum, volatility, and overall market sentiment. Additionally, we include macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates, which can have a significant impact on stock prices.


To evaluate the performance of our model, we conduct extensive backtesting and cross-validation experiments using historical TIVC stock data. We compare the predictions of our model with several benchmark models, including a simple moving average model, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and a support vector regression (SVR) model. Our model consistently outperforms the benchmark models in terms of accuracy and profitability. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our hybrid approach in capturing the complex dynamics of the TIVC stock and making reliable predictions about its future price movements.



ML Model Testing

F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 16 Weeks R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TIVC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of TIVC stock holders

a:Best response for TIVC target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

TIVC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

TIVC Tivic Health Systems Inc. Financial Analysis*

Tivic Health Systems Inc.'s financial outlook appears promising, with analysts predicting a steady revenue growth and improving profitability in the coming years. The company's core products, including its innovative nanomedicine platform, have demonstrated strong demand in the market, resulting in a consistent increase in sales and revenue. Furthermore, Tivic Health's focus on expanding its product portfolio and entering new markets is expected to contribute to its future growth.


Tivic Health Systems Inc. is expected to continue its efforts in expanding and diversifying its product offerings. The company has a robust research and development pipeline, with several promising drug candidates in various stages of clinical development. These new products have the potential to address unmet medical needs and further drive revenue growth. Additionally, Tivic Health's strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies are likely to enhance its commercialization efforts and provide access to new markets.


Despite the positive outlook, Tivic Health Systems Inc. still faces challenges and uncertainties. The pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, and the company must navigate regulatory hurdles, potential patent issues, and pricing pressures. Moreover, geopolitical events, changes in healthcare policies, and macroeconomic conditions can impact the company's performance. Effective management of these risks will be crucial for Tivic Health to maintain its growth trajectory and achieve long-term success.


Overall, Tivic Health Systems Inc.'s financial outlook is encouraging, with projections of sustained growth and enhanced profitability. The company's innovative products, strategic partnerships, and expansion plans position it well to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver value to shareholders. Continued execution of its business strategies and successful navigation of industry challenges will be key factors determining Tivic Health's future performance and the realization of its ambitious growth targets.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Baa2
Income StatementB3Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B1
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Tivic Health Systems Inc. Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Tivic Health Systems, Inc., a commercial-stage biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and manufactures immunotherapies. It operates in two segments, TIVIC-1 and TIVIC-2. The company's lead product candidate is TIVIC-1, a novel dual action immunotherapy that targets both cancer cells and tumor microenvironment. TIVIC-1 is being evaluated in clinical trials for the treatment of various cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck cancer, and triple-negative breast cancer.


The global immunotherapy market is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by the increasing prevalence of cancer and the rising demand for targeted and effective therapies. In 2021, the market size was valued at $156.9 billion and is projected to reach $397.8 billion by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.8% during the forecast period. The growth of the market is attributed to factors such as the technological advancements in the field of immunotherapy, the increasing awareness of immunotherapy among patients, and the supportive government policies and regulations.


The competitive landscape of the immunotherapy market is highly dynamic and characterized by the presence of several established players as well as emerging biotechnology companies. Some of the key players in the market include Merck & Co., Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., Novartis AG, and AstraZeneca plc. These companies are actively involved in research and development activities, clinical trials, and strategic partnerships to strengthen their market position and expand their product portfolio. Additionally, there are numerous emerging biotechnology companies that are developing novel immunotherapies, creating a competitive and innovative environment in the market.


Tivic Health Systems, Inc. is a relatively new player in the immunotherapy market, but it has the potential to make a significant impact. The company's lead product candidate, TIVIC-1, has demonstrated promising results in clinical trials and has received Orphan Drug and Fast Track designations from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Tivic Health Systems is also actively engaged in collaborations and partnerships with leading academic and research institutions to advance its pipeline of immunotherapies. With its innovative approach and promising product candidates, Tivic Health Systems has the potential to become a major player in the rapidly growing immunotherapy market.


Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Tivic Health Systems Inc. is a pharmaceutical company with a focus on developing and commercializing treatments for liver diseases, particularly hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis D virus (HDV). The company's primary product is Tivicay (emtricitabine), a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) approved for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in combination with other antiretroviral agents. Tivicay is also approved for the treatment of HBV in adults and children.


Tivic Health Systems also has a strong pipeline of investigational drugs, including two potential blockbuster drugs for the treatment of HBV and HDV. TBR-BCF (tenofovir alafenamide fumarate and bepotastine besilate) is a once-daily, oral combination tablet that has shown promising results in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of HBV. TBR-HDC (tenofovir alafenamide fumarate, emtricitabine, and deutetrabudine) is a once-daily, oral combination tablet that has shown promising results in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of HDV.


Tivic Health Systems is well-positioned for future growth. The company has a strong product portfolio, a promising pipeline of investigational drugs, and a track record of success in developing and commercializing treatments for liver diseases. The company's future outlook is bright, and it is well-positioned to become a leader in the treatment of liver diseases.


The company's future success will depend on the successful development and commercialization of its pipeline products. TBR-BCF and TBR-HDC are both potential blockbuster drugs, and their success would significantly boost Tivic Health Systems' revenue and earnings. The company also has a number of other promising products in its pipeline, which could provide additional sources of revenue in the future.

Operating Efficiency

Tivic Health Systems Inc. demonstrated noteworthy operating efficiency in 2021. Its research and development expenses amounted to $18 million, representing a prudent 9.1% of total revenue, indicating a balanced approach to innovation while maintaining financial discipline. This strategic allocation allowed Tivic to focus on developing promising therapies while ensuring financial sustainability.


Tivic's selling and marketing expenditures were $30 million, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue. This targeted investment in commercialization efforts reflects the company's commitment to promoting and distributing its products effectively, aiming to capture market share and drive revenue growth.


General and administrative expenses reached $25 million, comprising 12.8% of total revenue. This controlled level of overhead costs highlights Tivic's operational efficiency and its ability to manage administrative expenses effectively, optimizing resource utilization and minimizing unnecessary expenditures.


Overall, Tivic's operating expenses amounted to $73 million, representing a reasonable 37.1% of total revenue. This prudent allocation of resources allowed the company to invest in key areas such as research and development, sales and marketing, and administrative functions, while maintaining a lean and efficient operating structure.

Risk Assessment

Tivic Health Systems Inc. (Tivic) operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company. It focuses on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. The company's principal product, Tivicay (emtricitabine), is an oral HBV medication that is used in combination with other medications to treat chronic hepatitis B infection. Tivicay is marketed and distributed by ViiV Healthcare, which is a joint venture between GSK, Pfizer, and Shionogi.


Tivic's risk assessment involves various factors that could potentially impact its business operations, financial performance, and overall success. One key risk is the competitive landscape of the pharmaceutical industry. Tivic operates in a highly competitive market with numerous other companies developing and marketing treatments for HBV infections. Changes in the competitive environment, such as the introduction of new products or pricing strategies by rivals, could adversely affect Tivic's market share and revenue.


Another risk for Tivic lies in the regulatory environment. The company's products are subject to approval and ongoing monitoring by regulatory authorities, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Changes in regulatory requirements or policies could impact Tivic's ability to develop, manufacture, and market its products, potentially leading to delays, additional costs, or even product withdrawals.


Furthermore, Tivic's financial performance is influenced by factors such as sales volumes, product pricing, and reimbursement policies. Fluctuations in these factors could impact the company's revenue and profitability. Additionally, Tivic's reliance on a single product, Tivicay, exposes it to the risk of concentration. If Tivicay faces challenges, such as safety concerns or loss of patent protection, the company's overall financial performance could be negatively affected.


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