Modelling A.I. in Economics

Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ULTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. Inductive learning is a type of machine learning in which the model learns from a set of labeled data and makes predictions about new, unlabeled data. The model is trained on the labeled data and then used to make predictions on new data. Inductive learning is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of inductive learning algorithms, including decision trees, support vector machines, and neural networks. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 37

Key Points

  1. Inductive Learning (ML) for ULTA stock price prediction process.
  2. Linear Regression
  3. Investment Risk
  4. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  5. Trading Signals

ULTA Stock Price Forecast

We consider Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ULTA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ULTA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ULTA stock holders

a:Best response for ULTA target price


Inductive learning is a type of machine learning in which the model learns from a set of labeled data and makes predictions about new, unlabeled data. The model is trained on the labeled data and then used to make predictions on new data. Inductive learning is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of inductive learning algorithms, including decision trees, support vector machines, and neural networks. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

ULTA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Inductive Learning (ML) based ULTA Stock Prediction Model

  1. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
  2. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  3. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
  4. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Income StatementCB3
Balance SheetBaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  2. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  3. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  4. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  5. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
  6. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  7. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ULTA stock expected to rise?
A: ULTA stock prediction model is evaluated with Inductive Learning (ML) and Linear Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ULTA stock is Sell
Q: Is ULTA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ULTA Stock.
Q: Is Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ULTA stock?
A: The consensus rating for ULTA is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for ULTA stock?
A: ULTA target price forecast: Sell

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