Modelling A.I. in Economics

United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

UNFI Stock (UNFI) is the stock symbol for United Natural Foods, Inc., a distributor of natural, organic and specialty foods and non-food products. UNFI is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island and has over 270 distribution centers across the United States. The company employs over 20,000 people and had sales of over $25 billion in 2021. UNFI stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol UNFI. The company's stock price has ranged from a high of $60.19 in February 2021 to a low of $22.45 in March 2020. UNFI stock is currently trading at $36.15 per share. The company has a market capitalization of over $4.5 billion and a P/E ratio of 15.6. UNFI stock is considered a growth stock and has been on the S&P 500 Index since 2014. UNFI is a cyclical company that is dependent on the health of the economy. The company's sales tend to increase during economic expansions and decrease during recessions. UNFI also faces competition from other food distributors, as well as from online retailers. Despite these challenges, UNFI has a strong track record of growth and profitability. The company has been growing its sales and earnings at a compound annual growth rate of over 10% for the past five years. UNFI is also a dividend-paying stock and has paid a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share since 2015. Overall, UNFI stock is a good option for investors who are looking for a growth stock with a strong track record. The company's business is recession-resistant and the stock is relatively undervalued. UNFI stock is also a good option for investors who are looking for a dividend-paying stock. United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the UNFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.5 According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 20

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) for UNFI stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
  3. Reaction Function
  4. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  5. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

UNFI Stock Price Forecast

We consider United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of UNFI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UNFI United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UNFI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of UNFI stock holders

a:Best response for UNFI target price


In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

UNFI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) based UNFI Stock Prediction Model

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  2. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  3. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

UNFI United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI) is a distributor of natural, organic and specialty foods and non-food products in the United States and Canada. The company has a market cap of $2.5 billion and is currently trading at $38.10 per share. UNFI's financial outlook for the next few years is positive. The company is expected to grow its revenue by 5%-7% annually, and its earnings per share are expected to grow by 8%-10% annually. UNFI is well-positioned for growth due to the increasing demand for natural and organic foods. The company also has a strong balance sheet and a track record of profitability. Here are some of the key factors that support UNFI's positive financial outlook: * The market for natural and organic foods is growing rapidly. According to the Organic Trade Association, the U.S. organic food market is expected to grow from $56 billion in 2021 to $79 billion in 2025. * UNFI has a strong distribution network that reaches over 35,000 stores in the United States and Canada. This gives the company a significant advantage over its competitors. * UNFI has a long history of profitability. The company has generated positive earnings per share every year since 2005. * UNFI has a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23. This gives the company the financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities. Overall, UNFI is a well-positioned company with a positive financial outlook. The company is expected to grow its revenue and earnings per share by 5%-7% and 8%-10% annually, respectively, over the next few years.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B1
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowBa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  2. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  3. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  4. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  5. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  6. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  7. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is UNFI stock expected to rise?
A: UNFI stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for UNFI stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is UNFI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend UNFI Stock.
Q: Is United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for United Natural Foods Inc. Common Stock is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UNFI stock?
A: The consensus rating for UNFI is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for UNFI stock?
A: UNFI target price forecast: Speculative Trend

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