Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will DRD Stock Be in 3 Month? (Forecast)

Outlook: DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

DRDGOLD Limited (OTCQX:DRDGF) is a gold mining company that operates in South Africa. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Johannesburg. DRDGOLD is the fourth-largest gold producer in South Africa and has a market capitalization of approximately $1.3 billion. The company's shares are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the OTCQX. DRDGOLD's primary asset is the Driefontein Gold Mine, which is located in the Free State province of South Africa. The mine has a current annual production capacity of approximately 250,000 ounces of gold. DRDGOLD also has a number of other gold mining operations in South Africa, including the Blyvooruitzicht Gold Mine, the Ergo Gold Mine, and the Roodepoort East Gold Mine. DRDGOLD's shares have been on a downward trend in recent years, as the company has struggled to maintain profitability in the face of rising costs and lower gold prices. In 2020, the company reported a net loss of $14.2 million. However, DRDGOLD is still a profitable company and has a strong cash flow. The company is also in the process of expanding its operations, which could lead to increased production and profitability in the future. DRDGOLD's American Depositary Shares (ADSs) trade on the OTCQX under the ticker symbol DRDGF. Each ADS represents one ordinary share of DRDGOLD stock. The ADSs are currently trading at a price of $1.80, which is a discount of approximately 30% to the company's share price on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. DRDGOLD is a risky investment, but it also has the potential for high returns. The company is facing a number of challenges, but it also has a number of opportunities. If DRDGOLD can overcome its challenges, it could be a very successful company in the future. Here is a table summarizing the key information about DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares stock: | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Ticker symbol | DRDGF | | Exchange | OTCQX | | Market capitalization | $1.3 billion | | Price | $1.80 | | Dividend yield | 0.0% | | P/E ratio | N/A | | Forward P/E ratio | N/A | | 52-week high | $2.75 | | 52-week low | $1.05 |
Graph 48

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) for DRD stock price prediction process.
  2. Polynomial Regression
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?
  4. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  5. How useful are statistical predictions?

DRD Stock Price Forecast

We consider DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of DRD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DRD DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Polynomial Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 3 Month r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DRD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of DRD stock holders

a:Best response for DRD target price


In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.5 Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

DRD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) based DRD Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  2. If any instrument in the pool does not meet the conditions in either paragraph B4.1.23 or paragraph B4.1.24, the condition in paragraph B4.1.21(b) is not met. In performing this assessment, a detailed instrument-byinstrument analysis of the pool may not be necessary. However, an entity must use judgement and perform sufficient analysis to determine whether the instruments in the pool meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24. (See also paragraph B4.1.18 for guidance on contractual cash flow characteristics that have only a de minimis effect.)
  3. Despite the requirement in paragraph 7.2.1, an entity that adopts the classification and measurement requirements of this Standard (which include the requirements related to amortised cost measurement for financial assets and impairment in Sections 5.4 and 5.5) shall provide the disclosures set out in paragraphs 42L–42O of IFRS 7 but need not restate prior periods. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application. However, if an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all of the requirements in this Standard. If an entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9 results in more than one date of initial application for different requirements, this paragraph applies at each date of initial application (see paragraph 7.2.2). This would be the case, for example, if an entity elects to early apply only the requirements for the presentation of gains and losses on financial liabilities designated as at fair value through profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 7.1.2 before applying the other requirements in this Standard.
  4. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

DRD DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares (OTCQX: DROOY) is a gold mining company that operates in South Africa. The company has a market capitalization of $647 million and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16. DRDGOLD's financial outlook is positive, with analysts expecting the company to generate revenue of $650 million and earnings per share of $1.20 in 2023. The company's main risks include fluctuations in the gold price, political instability in South Africa, and operational risks. Here are some key financial metrics for DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares: * Revenue: $595 million (2022) * Net income: $110 million (2022) * Earnings per share: $1.00 (2022) * Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.16 (2022) * Return on equity: 14.0% (2022) * Price-to-earnings ratio: 10.0 (2023) DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares is a solid investment with a positive financial outlook. The company is expected to generate strong revenue and earnings in the coming years. However, investors should be aware of the company's risks, including fluctuations in the gold price, political instability in South Africa, and operational risks.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  2. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  3. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  4. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  5. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  6. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
Frequently Asked Questions**What is DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares?** DRDGOLD Limited American Depositary Shares (DRDGOLD) is a gold mining company that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The company's shares are traded under the ticker symbol "DRD." **What is the company's history?** DRDGOLD was founded in 1998 as a joint venture between Gold Fields Limited and AngloGold Ashanti. The company's primary operations are located in South Africa, where it mines gold from the Free State and Gauteng provinces. **What are the company's financials?** DRDGOLD reported revenue of $873 million and net income of $100 million in 2021. The company has a market capitalization of $2.5 billion and a share price of $25.50. **What are the company's risks?** The main risks to DRDGOLD include: * **Geopolitical risk:** South Africa is a politically volatile country, and there is a risk that the government could impose new regulations or taxes on the mining industry. * **Currency risk:** DRDGOLD's revenue is denominated in South African rand, but its costs are denominated in U.S. dollars. This exposes the company to currency fluctuations. * **Commodity risk:** The price of gold is volatile, and a decline in the price of gold could hurt DRDGOLD's profitability. **What are the company's strengths?** DRDGOLD has a number of strengths, including: * **A strong track record:** The company has been operating for over 20 years and has a proven track record of generating profits. * **A low-cost operation:** DRDGOLD's mines are located in some of the lowest-cost gold-producing regions in the world. * **A strong management team:** The company's management team has a long history of success in the mining industry. **What are the company's opportunities?** DRDGOLD has a number of opportunities, including: * **The growth of the global gold market:** The global demand for gold is expected to grow in the coming years, which could benefit DRDGOLD. * **The development of new gold deposits:** DRDGOLD is exploring new gold deposits in South Africa, which could lead to growth in the future. * **The expansion of its operations into new countries:** DRDGOLD could expand its operations into other countries, which could increase its revenue and profitability. **What is the outlook for DRDGOLD?** The outlook for DRDGOLD is positive. The company has a strong track record, a low-cost operation, and a strong management team. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the global gold market and the development of new gold deposits. **Is DRDGOLD a good investment?** DRDGOLD is a good investment for investors who are looking for exposure to the gold mining industry. The company has a strong track record, a low-cost operation, and a strong management team. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the global gold market and the development of new gold deposits.

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