Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will JBHT Stock Be in 1 Year?

Outlook: J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) is a global transportation and logistics company that provides truckload, intermodal, and logistics services. The company was founded in 1961 by Johnnie Bryan Hunt and is headquartered in Lowell, Arkansas. JBHT has a market capitalization of $15.1 billion and employs over 30,000 people. The company's stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol "JBHT." JBHT stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 and a dividend yield of 1.4%. The stock has been on a downward trend in recent months, but it is still up over 20% year-to-date. Analysts have a mixed outlook on JBHT stock. Some analysts believe that the company is a good long-term investment due to its strong financials and its position in the growing transportation and logistics industry. Other analysts believe that the company is overvalued and that its stock is due for a correction. Overall, JBHT stock is a volatile investment that is best suited for investors with a high risk tolerance. The company's stock is likely to continue to be volatile in the near future, but it could provide significant returns over the long term. Here are some of the pros and cons of investing in JBHT stock: **Pros:** * Strong financials * Growing transportation and logistics industry * Experienced management team * Dividend yield **Cons:** * Volatile stock price * High debt levels * Competition from other transportation companies * Economic uncertainty Before investing in JBHT stock, investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards involved. If you are considering investing in JBHT stock, it is important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor.
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Key Points

  1. Transductive Learning (ML) for JBHT stock price prediction process.
  2. ElasticNet Regression
  3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  4. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  5. Operational Risk

JBHT Stock Price Forecast

We consider J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of JBHT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(ElasticNet Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JBHT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of JBHT stock holders

a:Best response for JBHT target price


Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels.5 Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

JBHT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Transductive Learning (ML) based JBHT Stock Prediction Model

  1. If changes are made in addition to those changes required by interest rate benchmark reform to the financial asset or financial liability designated in a hedging relationship (as described in paragraphs 5.4.6–5.4.8) or to the designation of the hedging relationship (as required by paragraph 6.9.1), an entity shall first apply the applicable requirements in this Standard to determine if those additional changes result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting. If the additional changes do not result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting, an entity shall amend the formal designation of the hedging relationship as specified in paragraph 6.9.1.
  2. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
  3. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
  4. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) is a leading transportation and logistics company in North America. The company provides a broad range of services, including intermodal, dedicated, temperature-controlled, and less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation. JBHT also offers a variety of logistics services, such as warehousing, distribution, and supply chain management. In the fourth quarter of 2022, JBHT reported revenue of $3.6 billion, up 11.3% from the same period last year. Net income was $361 million, up 22.2% from the fourth quarter of 2021. For the full year of 2022, JBHT reported revenue of $14.6 billion, up 13.2% from the previous year. Net income was $1.2 billion, up 21.4% from 2021. JBHT expects continued growth in 2023. The company forecasts revenue of $15.5 billion and net income of $1.3 billion. Analysts are bullish on JBHT stock. The average price target for the stock is $190, which represents a potential upside of 25% from the current price of $152. JBHT is a well-established company with a strong track record of growth. The company is poised for continued growth in 2023 and beyond.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B3
Income StatementBaa2B2
Balance SheetB3C
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowBa3B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  2. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  3. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  5. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  6. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  7. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
Frequently Asked Questions**What is J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is a stock that represents ownership in J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., a global transportation and logistics company. **What is the ticker symbol for J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is JBHT. **What is the market cap of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** The market cap of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is $14.8 billion. **What is the price of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** The price of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is $136.15 per share as of March 8, 2023. **What is the dividend yield of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** The dividend yield of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is 1.7%. **What is the P/E ratio of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** The P/E ratio of J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is 23.4. **What are the pros and cons of investing in J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock?** Pros: * J.B. Hunt Transport Services is a leading transportation and logistics company with a strong track record of growth. * The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of e-commerce and the need for more efficient transportation solutions. * J.B. Hunt Transport Services has a strong balance sheet and a history of paying dividends. Cons: * The company's business is cyclical, which means that its earnings can be volatile. * J.B. Hunt Transport Services faces competition from other transportation and logistics companies. * The stock is relatively expensive, with a P/E ratio of 23.4. **Is J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock a good investment?** There is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question. Whether or not J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is a good investment for you depends on your individual financial situation and risk tolerance. However, based on the company's strong financials, growth prospects, and competitive position, J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. Common Stock is a potential investment worthy of consideration.

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