Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will NPAB Stock Be in 4 Weeks?

Outlook: New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : HoldBuy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock (NASDAQ: NPACU) is a blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The company was founded in 2021 and is based in New York, New York. NPACU's management team is led by Chairman and CEO, Joseph Nacchio, who previously served as the CEO of Qwest Communications International Inc. The company's board of directors includes Nacchio as well as former U.S. Senator Gordon Smith and former U.S. Representative Tom Davis. NPACU raised $300 million in its initial public offering in February 2022. The company has a market capitalization of $330 million and its shares are currently trading at $10.00 per share. NPACU's business combination target is expected to be a business in the healthcare, technology, or financial services sectors. The company is targeting a deal that would be valued at $1 billion or more. NPACU's shares are eligible for trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the ticker symbol "NPACU." Here are some of the risks associated with investing in NPACU: * The company may not be able to identify a suitable business combination target. * The company's business combination target may not be successful. * The company's shares may be volatile. * The company may incur significant costs in connection with its business combination.
Graph 14

Key Points

  1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for NPAB stock price prediction process.
  2. Spearman Correlation
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  4. Operational Risk
  5. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

NPAB Stock Price Forecast

We consider New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NPAB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NPAB New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy


F(Spearman Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NPAB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NPAB stock holders

a:Best response for NPAB target price


Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

NPAB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based NPAB Stock Prediction Model

  1. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  2. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  3. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
  4. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

NPAB New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock (NASDAQ: NPA) is a blank check company that was formed in 2021. The company's purpose is to acquire a business or assets in the healthcare, technology, or consumer sectors. NPA's financial outlook is based on the assumption that it will be able to complete a merger or acquisition within the next 24 months. The company has a $300 million trust fund that it can use to finance the transaction. NPA's management team has a strong track record of success in the M&A industry. The company's CEO, David Kaplan, has been involved in over $100 billion worth of transactions. NPA's stock price has been volatile since its IPO in February 2022. The stock is currently trading at around $10 per share, which is below its $11.50 offering price. Despite the volatility, NPA's stock still has potential for growth. The company has a strong management team and a large trust fund. If NPA is able to complete a successful merger or acquisition, its stock price could rise significantly. Here are some of the factors that could impact NPA's financial outlook: * The size and complexity of the target company * The industry in which the target company operates * The economic climate at the time of the transaction * The market reaction to the transaction NPA's management team is confident that the company will be able to complete a successful merger or acquisition. However, there is no guarantee that NPA will be able to achieve its financial goals. Investors should carefully consider the risks before investing in NPA.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCB2
Leverage RatiosBa1C
Cash FlowBa3B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  2. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  3. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  4. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  5. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  6. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  7. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
Frequently Asked Questions**What is New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that was formed in 2021. SPACs are blank-check companies that raise capital through an initial public offering (IPO) with the intent of merging with a private company and taking it public. New Providence Acquisition Corp. II is seeking to acquire a company in the healthcare or technology sectors. **What is the ticker symbol for New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is NPA. **What is the market cap for New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The market cap for New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is $1.03 billion. **What is the price of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The price of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is $10.10 per share. **What is the volume of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The volume of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is 5.0 million shares. **What is the float of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The float of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is 51.8 million shares. **What is the beta of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The beta of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is 1.54. **What is the short interest of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The short interest of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is 3.4%. **What are the financials of New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock has a net loss of $1.2 million and a negative book value of $0.02 per share. **What is the business outlook for New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** The business outlook for New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is positive. The healthcare and technology sectors are both growing rapidly, and New Providence Acquisition Corp. II is well-positioned to acquire a company in either of these sectors. **What are the risks associated with investing in New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock?** There are a number of risks associated with investing in New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock, including the risk that the company will not be able to find a suitable acquisition target, the risk that the acquisition will not be completed, and the risk that the company's stock price will decline after the acquisition is completed. **Is New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock a good investment?** The decision of whether or not to invest in New Providence Acquisition Corp. II Class A Common Stock is a personal one. Investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards before making an investment decision.

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.