Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will PYPL Stock Be in 8 Weeks? (Forecast)

Outlook: PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Independent T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PYPL stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 17

Key Points

  1. Multi-Task Learning (ML) for PYPL stock price prediction process.
  2. Independent T-Test
  3. What is neural prediction?
  4. Short/Long Term Stocks
  5. Operational Risk

PYPL Stock Price Forecast

We consider PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PYPL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Independent T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PYPL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of PYPL stock holders

a:Best response for PYPL target price


Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.5 An independent t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two independent samples. In an independent t-test, the data points in each sample are not related to each other. The independent t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The independent t-test is also a two-sample test, which means that it compares the means of two independent samples.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

PYPL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based PYPL Stock Prediction Model

  1. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  2. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
  3. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.
  4. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCB2
Cash FlowBa3B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
  2. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  4. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  7. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is PYPL stock expected to rise?
A: PYPL stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for PYPL stock is Buy
Q: Is PYPL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PYPL Stock.
Q: Is PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PayPal Holdings Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PYPL stock?
A: The consensus rating for PYPL is Buy.
Q: What is the forecast for PYPL stock?
A: PYPL target price forecast: Buy

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