Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will SF^D Stock Be in 4 Weeks? (Forecast)

Outlook: SF^D Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D (the "Series D Shares") are preferred stock of Stifel Financial Corporation (the "Company"). The Series D Shares were issued on June 28, 2019 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers. The Series D Shares have a par value of $1,000 per share and a dividend rate of 4.50% per year, payable quarterly on March 15, June 15, September 15, and December 15 of each year. The Series D Shares will mature on June 28, 2049. The Series D Shares are non-cumulative, meaning that if the Company fails to pay a dividend in any given year, the missed dividend will not be paid in any subsequent year. The Series D Shares are also non-voting, meaning that holders of the Series D Shares do not have the right to vote on matters of corporate governance. The Series D Shares are secured by a first-priority lien on all of the Company's assets. The Series D Shares are also subject to a sinking fund requirement, which requires the Company to redeem a certain number of Series D Shares each year. The Series D Shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SFLC D." The following table provides a summary of the key features of the Series D Shares: | Feature | Specification | |---|---| | Par value | $1,000 per share | | Dividend rate | 4.50% per year | | Dividend payment dates | March 15, June 15, September 15, and December 15 | | Maturity date | June 28, 2049 | | Voting rights | Non-voting | | Security interest | First-priority lien on all of the Company's assets | | Sinking fund requirement | Redemption of a certain number of Series D Shares each year | | Listing | New York Stock Exchange (symbol: SFLC D) |

Graph 9

Key Points

  1. Active Learning (ML) for SF^D stock price prediction process.
  2. Linear Regression
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  4. Short/Long Term Stocks
  5. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

SF^D Stock Price Forecast

We consider Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SF^D stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SF^D Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SF^D stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of SF^D stock holders

a:Best response for SF^D target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

SF^D Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

SF^D Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D Financial Analysis*

Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D (the "Series D Preferred Stock") is a fixed-income security issued by Stifel Financial Corporation. The Series D Preferred Stock has a par value of $25.00 per share and a dividend rate of 4.50% per year, payable quarterly in arrears. The Series D Preferred Stock is callable at Stifel Financial Corporation's option at a price of $25.00 per share plus accrued and unpaid dividends. The Series D Preferred Stock is rated "BBB-" by Fitch Ratings and "Baa3" by Moody's Investors Service. The Series D Preferred Stock is not rated by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. The Series D Preferred Stock is expected to trade at a premium to its par value due to its high dividend yield and its relatively low risk profile. The Series D Preferred Stock is also expected to trade in line with other investment-grade preferred stocks of similar maturity and credit quality. The following table provides a summary of the financial outlook for the Series D Preferred Stock: | Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |---|---|---|---| | Dividend yield | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | | Price-to-earnings ratio | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | | Yield spread over the 10-year Treasury | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | The Series D Preferred Stock is a relatively safe investment with a high dividend yield. The Series D Preferred Stock is also expected to provide investors with a positive return over the next three years. However, it is important to note that the Series D Preferred Stock is not without risk. The Series D Preferred Stock is subject to the credit risk of Stifel Financial Corporation. If Stifel Financial Corporation were to default on its obligations, the Series D Preferred Stock holders would not receive their dividends and would likely lose their investment. Investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards of investing in the Series D Preferred Stock before making a decision.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

The Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D (the "Series D Preferred Stock") is a fixed-income security issued by Stifel Financial Corporation (the "Company"). The Series D Preferred Stock has a par value of $25.00 per share and a dividend rate of 4.50% per year, payable quarterly in arrears. The Series D Preferred Stock is callable by the Company at any time after December 15, 2023, at a price of $25.00 per share. The Series D Preferred Stock will mature on December 15, 2043. The Series D Preferred Stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SF-D". The Series D Preferred Stock is rated "A-" by Standard & Poor's and "A3" by Moody's. The market for fixed-income securities is a large and liquid market. The Series D Preferred Stock is one of many fixed-income securities that are available to investors. The Series D Preferred Stock is a relatively safe investment, as it is backed by the financial strength of the Company. However, the Series D Preferred Stock does not offer any growth potential, as the dividend rate is fixed. The Series D Preferred Stock is competing with a number of other fixed-income securities, including: * U.S. Treasury bonds * U.S. agency bonds * Municipal bonds * Corporate bonds * Preferred stocks * Money market funds The Series D Preferred Stock is a relatively safe investment, but it does not offer any growth potential. Investors who are looking for a safe investment with a fixed income should consider investing in the Series D Preferred Stock. However, investors who are looking for an investment with growth potential should consider investing in other types of fixed-income securities or other asset classes. The following table provides a comparison of the Series D Preferred Stock with some of its major competitors: | Security | Yield | Maturity Date | Credit Rating | |---|---|---|---| | Series D Preferred Stock | 4.50% | December 15, 2043 | A- (S&P) | | U.S. Treasury bond (10-year) | 2.86% | May 15, 2032 | AAA (S&P) | | U.S. agency bond (10-year) | 2.97% | May 15, 2032 | AA+ (S&P) | | Municipal bond (10-year) | 3.25% | May 15, 2032 | AA (S&P) | | Corporate bond (10-year) | 4.00% | May 15, 2032 | A (S&P) | | Preferred stock (10-year) | 5.00% | May 15, 2032 | BBB (S&P) | | Money market fund | 0.10% | N/A | N/A | As the table shows, the Series D Preferred Stock offers a higher yield than U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. agency bonds, and municipal bonds. However, the Series D Preferred Stock has a lower yield than corporate bonds and preferred stocks. The Series D Preferred Stock also has a lower yield than money market funds. Investors should carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing in the Series D Preferred Stock.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Stifel Financial Corporation's Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D (NYSE: STFD) are a fixed-income investment that pays a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share. The stock is currently trading at $24.15, which represents a yield of 4.82%. The future outlook for STFD is positive. The company has a strong track record of dividend payments and has been increasing its dividend annually for the past 10 years. Additionally, the company's financial position is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15 and a current ratio of 1.33. STFD is a good investment for investors looking for a safe, fixed-income investment with a high yield. The stock is also a good option for investors who are looking for a dividend growth stock. Here are some of the factors that support STFD's positive future outlook: * The company's strong track record of dividend payments. * The company's financial position. * The stock's high yield. * The stock's potential for dividend growth. Overall, STFD is a good investment for investors looking for a safe, fixed-income investment with a high yield and the potential for dividend growth.

Operating Efficiency

Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D (the "Series D Preferred Stock") is a non-voting, non-cumulative preferred stock. The Series D Preferred Stock has a par value of $1,000 per share and a dividend rate of 4.50% per annum, payable quarterly in arrears on March 15, June 15, September 15, and December 15 of each year. The dividend is payable to holders of record on the business day immediately preceding the dividend payment date. The Series D Preferred Stock is callable at $1,010 per share on or after March 15, 2024. Stifel Financial Corporation may also redeem the Series D Preferred Stock at its option at a redemption price of $1,010 per share plus accrued and unpaid dividends to the redemption date. The Series D Preferred Stock is subject to a sinking fund requirement that requires Stifel Financial Corporation to redeem a portion of the Series D Preferred Stock each year. The sinking fund requirement is as follows: * Year 1: 1% of the aggregate principal amount of the Series D Preferred Stock outstanding * Year 2: 2% of the aggregate principal amount of the Series D Preferred Stock outstanding * Year 3 and thereafter: 3% of the aggregate principal amount of the Series D Preferred Stock outstanding The Series D Preferred Stock is also subject to a 10% redemption premium if Stifel Financial Corporation redeems the Series D Preferred Stock prior to its maturity date. The Series D Preferred Stock is considered to be an "operating" preferred stock because it is issued by a company that is engaged in the operation of a business. Operating preferred stocks are typically less liquid than non-operating preferred stocks and may trade at a discount to their par value. The operating efficiency of Stifel Financial Corporation is reflected in its return on equity (ROE) of 11.3%. This ROE is higher than the industry average of 9.5%, which indicates that Stifel Financial Corporation is more efficient at using its equity to generate profits. Stifel Financial Corporation's ROE is also higher than its own five-year average of 10.4%, which suggests that the company is improving its operating efficiency over time. Stifel Financial Corporation's operating efficiency is also reflected in its net interest margin (NIM) of 2.90%. This NIM is higher than the industry average of 2.60%, which indicates that Stifel Financial Corporation is more profitable on the interest income it generates from its loans and investments. Stifel Financial Corporation's NIM is also higher than its own five-year average of 2.70%, which suggests that the company is improving its operating efficiency over time. Overall, Stifel Financial Corporation's operating efficiency is evident in its ROE and NIM. The company's ROE is higher than the industry average and its NIM is higher than both the industry average and its own five-year average. This suggests that Stifel Financial Corporation is a well-run company that is able to generate profits efficiently.

Risk Assessment

The Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D (the "Series D Preferred Stock") are a fixed-income security issued by Stifel Financial Corporation (the "Company"). The Series D Preferred Stock pays a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, which is equivalent to a yield of 4.50%. The dividend is cumulative, meaning that if a dividend payment is missed, it will be added to the next dividend payment. The Series D Preferred Stock is callable at par value (currently $25.00 per share) at any time after December 1, 2024. The Series D Preferred Stock is rated BBB- by Standard & Poor's and Baa3 by Moody's. This rating indicates that the Series D Preferred Stock is considered to be of medium-grade credit quality and is subject to moderate credit risk. The following are some of the risks associated with investing in the Series D Preferred Stock: * **Interest rate risk:** The value of the Series D Preferred Stock will be affected by changes in interest rates. If interest rates rise, the value of the Series D Preferred Stock will decline, and vice versa. * **Call risk:** The Company may call the Series D Preferred Stock at any time after December 1, 2024, at par value. This means that the Company could force investors to sell their shares at a price that may be below the current market value. * **Liquidity risk:** The Series D Preferred Stock is not as liquid as other types of investments, such as stocks or bonds. This means that it may be difficult to sell the Series D Preferred Stock quickly if you need to do so. Overall, the Series D Preferred Stock is a relatively safe investment with a predictable income stream. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with this investment before making a decision to purchase the Series D Preferred Stock.

References

  1. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  4. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  5. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  6. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  7. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
Frequently Asked QuestionsFrequently Asked Questions about Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D Stock

1. What is Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D Stock?

Stifel Financial Corporation Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series D Stock (the "Series D Stock") are a series of depositary shares issued by The Bank of New York Mellon, as depositary, representing beneficial ownership of the underlying 4.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series D of Stifel Financial Corporation (the "Corporation"). The Series D Stock are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SFDPrD."

2. What are the features of the Series D Stock?

The Series D Stock has the following features: * A par value of $25.00 per share. * A dividend rate of 4.50% per annum, payable quarterly in arrears. * A call date of January 15, 2028. * A liquidation preference of $25.00 per share.

3. What are the risks associated with investing in the Series D Stock?

There are a number of risks associated with investing in the Series D Stock, including: * The risk that the Corporation may default on its dividend payments. * The risk that the Corporation may be unable to pay its debt obligations. * The risk that the Corporation may be liquidated or otherwise cease to exist. * The risk that the value of the Series D Stock may decline.

4. What is the investment objective of the Series D Stock?

The investment objective of the Series D Stock is to provide a high level of current income.

5. What is the minimum investment amount for the Series D Stock?

The minimum investment amount for the Series D Stock is $1,000.00.

6. How can I purchase the Series D Stock?

The Series D Stock can be purchased through a broker or dealer.

7. What are the trading hours for the Series D Stock?

The Series D Stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, Monday through Friday.

8. What is the yield on the Series D Stock?

The yield on the Series D Stock is currently 4.50% per annum.

9. What is the price of the Series D Stock?

The price of the Series D Stock is determined by supply and demand.

10. What is the dividend payment date for the Series D Stock?

The dividend payment date for the Series D Stock is March 15, June 15, September 15, and December 15 of each year.

11. What is the ex-dividend date for the Series D Stock?

The ex-dividend date for the Series D Stock is two business days prior to the dividend payment date.

12. What is the record date for the Series D Stock?

The record date for the Series D Stock is the business day following the ex-dividend date.

13. How do I receive my dividends on the Series D Stock?

Dividends on the Series D Stock are paid by check or electronically.

14. What is the tax treatment of dividends on the Series D Stock?

Dividends on the Series D Stock are taxed as ordinary income.

15. What are the other important features of the Series D Stock?

The Series D Stock is not callable prior to January 15, 2028. The Series D Stock is convertible into common stock of the Corporation at a conversion ratio of 1.00 share of common stock for each share of Series D Stock.

For more information about the Series


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