Modelling A.I. in Economics

Will EVRG Stock Power Up? (Forecast)

Outlook: EVRG Evergy Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : HoldBuy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Deductive Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Evergy Inc., formerly known as Great Plains Energy Incorporated, is an American energy company headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. It is an investor-owned utility that provides electric service to approximately 1.6 million customers in Kansas and Missouri and natural gas service to approximately 140,000 customers in Kansas and Missouri. The company's electric utility operations are conducted through Kansas City Power & Light Company (KCP&L) in the Kansas City metropolitan area; Evergy Metro in the St. Joseph, Missouri, area; and Evergy Eastern Kansas in eastern Kansas. Its natural gas utility operations are conducted through KCP&L Gas Service and Evergy Kansas Gas Service. Evergy Inc. also owns and operates a portfolio of electric generating plants and transmission lines. The company's generating capacity is approximately 6,000 megawatts, and its transmission system consists of approximately 16,000 miles of transmission lines. Evergy Inc. is a publicly traded company with its common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol EVRG. The company's stock is a component of the S&P 500 index. Evergy Inc.'s common stock has a market capitalization of approximately $14 billion as of July 2023. The company's stock has performed well in recent years, outperforming the S&P 500 index. Evergy Inc.'s common stock is considered a good investment for income-oriented investors due to its relatively high dividend yield. The company's dividend yield is currently around 3%, which is higher than the average yield for utilities. Evergy Inc. is a well-established company with a long history of providing reliable energy service to its customers. The company's stock is considered a relatively safe investment, and it is a good option for investors who are looking for a steady income stream.

Graph 4

Key Points

  1. Deductive Inference (ML) for EVRG stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  4. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  5. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

EVRG Stock Price Prediction Model

To construct a machine learning model for EVRG stock prediction, commence by gathering relevant historical data, encompassing factors like economic indicators, company financials, market sentiments, and news events. Next, clean and preprocess the data to ensure consistency and accuracy. Divide the data into training and testing sets, ensuring the training set is sufficiently large to capture patterns and relationships. Select appropriate machine learning algorithms, such as Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, or Gradient Boosting Machines, and train the models using the training data. Continuously evaluate the performance of the models on the testing set to fine-tune hyperparameters and select the best-performing model. Once a satisfactory model is obtained, deploy it to make predictions on future EVRG stock prices. Regularly monitor the model's performance and retrain it as new data becomes available to maintain its accuracy and effectiveness in predicting EVRG stock movements.1,2,3,4,5

ML Model Testing

F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EVRG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of EVRG stock holders

a:Best response for EVRG target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

EVRG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

EVRG Evergy Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Evergy Inc., a regulated utility headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri, provides electricity to approximately 1.6 million customers in Kansas and Missouri and natural gas to approximately 160,000 customers in Missouri. The company's Common Stock has been closely monitored by investors and analysts, with predictions and outlooks varying based on several factors. One significant factor influencing the company's financial outlook is the regulatory environment. Evergy's rates and services are subject to the oversight of state regulatory commissions, which can impact the company's revenue and profitability. Changes in regulatory policies or decisions can have a direct bearing on the company's financial performance and, consequently, its stock price. Another crucial aspect affecting Evergy's financial outlook is its capital investment plans. The company has been investing heavily in transmission and distribution infrastructure, as well as renewable energy projects. These investments are aimed at modernizing the grid, improving reliability, and reducing carbon emissions. While these projects are essential for the long-term health of the company, they can also put pressure on earnings in the short term due to increased costs. The economic conditions in the regions served by Evergy also play a role in shaping the company's financial outlook. A strong economy typically leads to increased demand for electricity and natural gas, benefiting Evergy's revenue and earnings. Conversely, an economic downturn can suppress demand and negatively impact the company's financial performance. Additionally, Evergy's financial outlook is influenced by its fuel mix and the associated costs. The company's reliance on coal and natural gas for electricity generation exposes it to fluctuations in fuel prices. Changes in fuel costs can impact the company's operating expenses and profitability. Moreover, Evergy's financial performance can be affected by weather conditions. Extreme weather events, such as severe storms or heat waves, can disrupt the company's operations, leading to increased costs and potential damage to infrastructure. Finally, the overall health of the energy sector and broader market conditions can also influence the company's financial outlook. Economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and industry-specific developments can create volatility in the stock market, impacting Evergy's stock price and overall financial performance. Given these factors, analysts' predictions and outlooks for Evergy's Common Stock can vary. Some analysts may project steady growth in earnings and dividends, while others may anticipate fluctuations or even short-term challenges due to regulatory changes, capital investments, or economic conditions. It is important for investors to conduct thorough research, assess the company's fundamentals, and consider the potential risks and rewards before making investment decisions.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B2
Leverage RatiosB3Caa2
Cash FlowB3Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Evergy Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Evergy Inc. is an electric and natural gas utility holding company that operates through its regulated utility subsidiaries. It generates, transmits, and distributes electricity and natural gas to approximately 1.6 million customers in Kansas and Missouri. The company's common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "EVR." Evergy Inc.'s stock price has been relatively stable in recent years, with a 52-week range of $61.02 to $73.81. The company's dividend yield is currently around 3.5%. Evergy Inc. operates in a competitive market with other electric and natural gas utilities, as well as renewable energy providers. The company faces competition from traditional fossil fuel generators, as well as from wind and solar power producers. Evergy Inc. is also facing increasing pressure to reduce its carbon footprint and transition to cleaner energy sources. The company's main competitors include Westar Energy, Ameren Corporation, and Kansas City Power & Light Company. Evergy Inc. has a number of strengths that help it compete in the market. The company has a long history of providing reliable and affordable energy to its customers. It also has a strong financial position, with a low debt-to-equity ratio and ample cash flow. Additionally, Evergy Inc. has a diversified portfolio of generation assets, which helps it to mitigate the risk of supply disruptions. However, the company also faces a number of challenges. The company's regulated utility operations are subject to government oversight, which can limit its ability to raise rates and expand its operations. Additionally, Evergy Inc. is exposed to the risk of weather-related events, such as storms and droughts, which can disrupt its operations and lead to financial losses. Overall, Evergy Inc. is a well-positioned company in a competitive market. The company has a number of strengths that help it to compete, but it also faces a number of challenges. Investors should carefully consider the company's strengths and weaknesses before making an investment decision.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Evergy Inc. Common Stockfuture outlook possesses both opportunities and risks for investors. Several factors contribute to its potential growth and volatility. The company's strong presence in the energy industry, particularly in regulated electric and natural gas distribution and transmission services, provides a stable foundation for revenue generation. Moreover, Evergy's commitment to clean energy and renewable resources aligns with the growing demand for sustainable solutions. These factors indicate the company's potential for long-term growth and resilience in a changing energy landscape. On the other hand, Evergy is susceptible to regulatory changes, particularly those related to energy pricing and environmental policies. The company's exposure to weather conditions and natural disasters also introduces an element of uncertainty. Additionally, the competitive nature of the energy industry and fluctuations in energy demand can impact Evergy's financial performance. Investors should carefully consider these factors and evaluate the company's track record, financial stability, and management strategies before making investment decisions. Monitoring regulatory developments, energy market trends, and the company's response to industry challenges will be crucial in assessing the future outlook of Evergy Inc. Common Stockfuture.

Operating Efficiency

Evergy Inc. has consistently demonstrated impressive operating efficiency through its systematic and effective management of costs and resources. The company's unrelenting focus on enhancing its operational performance has resulted in notable achievements. In 2022, Evergy achieved a remarkable 31.50% operating efficiency ratio, a testament to its dedication to optimizing its operations. This ratio indicates that for every dollar of revenue generated, only 31.50 cents were spent on operating expenses, reflecting the company's ability to control costs and maximize profitability. Furthermore, Evergy's operating efficiency has shown a steady improvement over the past five years, highlighting the company's commitment to continuous improvement and innovation. This ongoing pursuit of efficiency has positioned Evergy as a leader in the energy industry, enabling it to deliver reliable and cost-effective services to its customers while maintaining a strong financial position. The company's commitment to operational excellence is deeply ingrained in its culture, driving its employees to consistently seek opportunities for optimization and efficiency gains. Evergy's strategic investments in technology, infrastructure, and workforce development have played a pivotal role in enhancing its operating efficiency. By leveraging advanced technologies and adopting innovative practices, the company has streamlined its operations, improved productivity, and reduced waste. Additionally, Evergy's robust risk management framework and proactive approach to maintenance have contributed significantly to its operational efficiency. These initiatives have resulted in fewer unplanned outages, improved asset utilization, and enhanced overall reliability. Evergy's commitment to operating efficiency has not only strengthened its financial performance but has also enabled the company to provide exceptional customer service. By optimizing its operations and minimizing costs, Evergy can offer competitive rates and reliable energy services, contributing to the overall satisfaction and loyalty of its customers. As a result of its unwavering focus on operating efficiency, Evergy has established itself as a benchmark for excellence in the energy industry, consistently delivering superior performance and value to its stakeholders.

Risk Assessment

Evergy Inc., a Kansas City-based energy company, presents various risk factors that potential investors should consider before making investment decisions. One prominent risk lies in the competitive nature of the energy industry. Evergy operates in a dynamic and evolving market where numerous companies vie for customers and market share. Intense competition can lead to price pressures, reduced demand for services, and challenges in maintaining or growing customer base. Moreover, changes in government regulations, particularly those related to environmental standards and energy policies, can significantly impact Evergy's operations and financial performance. Shifting regulatory landscapes can impose additional costs, require costly upgrades to infrastructure, and potentially limit the company's ability to expand or operate certain facilities. Additionally, Evergy's reliance on external factors such as weather conditions and fuel prices exposes it to uncertainties and potential disruptions. Severe weather events can affect energy demand and supply, leading to fluctuations in revenue and profitability. Similarly, fluctuations in fuel prices can impact Evergy's expenses and, consequently, its earnings. Furthermore, the company's substantial debt load poses financial risks. High debt levels can limit Evergy's financial flexibility, increase interest expenses, and restrict its ability to make strategic investments or pursue growth opportunities. Lastly, geopolitical and economic uncertainties, including global conflicts, economic downturns, and supply chain disruptions, can indirectly impact Evergy's operations and financial results. Investors should carefully evaluate these risks and consider their tolerance for potential losses before investing in Evergy Inc. Common Stock.

References

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