Modelling A.I. in Economics

Will HIFS Maintain Its Upward Momentum? (Forecast)

Outlook: HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Pearson Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

Summary

Hingham Institution for Savings, also known as Hingham Savings, is a mutual savings bank headquartered in Hingham, Massachusetts. It was founded in 1834 and is the oldest bank on the South Shore of Massachusetts. Hingham Savings offers a variety of banking products and services, including checking and savings accounts, loans, and investment services.

The bank has 14 branches located throughout the South Shore and Cape Cod. Hingham Savings is a member of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which means that deposits up to $250,000 are insured.

Hingham Savings is a community-oriented bank that is committed to providing its customers with exceptional service. The bank offers a variety of programs and services to support the local community, including financial education, homeownership counseling, and scholarships.


Graph 35

HIFS Stock Price Prediction Model

We aim to harness the power of machine learning to develop a predictive model for HIFS stock, enabling investors to make informed decisions. Our objective is to devise a robust and reliable model capable of capturing the intricate dynamics of the stock market.


We propose the following approach to construct our machine learning model:


1. Data Collection: The foundation of our model lies in the acquisition of comprehensive historical data encompassing HIFS stock prices, economic indicators, market sentiment, and other relevant variables. This data will be sourced from reliable financial databases, news sources, and social media platforms.


2. Data Preprocessing: To ensure the integrity and consistency of our data, we will undertake a rigorous preprocessing phase. This involves cleaning the data for missing values, outliers, and inconsistencies, as well as normalizing the data to facilitate efficient model training.


3. Feature Engineering: We will craft a comprehensive set of features that effectively capture the characteristics and patterns inherent in the data. This may include technical indicators, momentum indicators, volatility measures, and sentiment analysis metrics. By engineering informative features, we enhance the model's ability to learn and make accurate predictions.


4. Model Selection: To determine the optimal machine learning algorithm for our model, we will evaluate a range of algorithms, including linear regression, decision trees, random forests, and neural networks. We will assess the performance of each algorithm using cross-validation techniques to select the one that exhibits the highest predictive accuracy.


5. Model Training and Optimization: Once the appropriate algorithm is chosen, we will train the model using the historical data. Hyperparameter tuning will be performed to optimize the model's performance, adjusting parameters such as learning rate, regularization strength, and the number of hidden units in neural networks. This tuning process ensures the model achieves optimal generalization capabilities.


6. Model Evaluation: To assess the robustness and reliability of our model, we will conduct rigorous evaluation procedures. Backtesting will be performed on a held-out dataset to simulate real-world trading conditions and evaluate the model's out-of-sample performance. Additionally, we will employ various statistical metrics, such as mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and Sharpe ratio, to quantify the model's accuracy and profitability.


7. Model Deployment: Upon successful evaluation, the final model will be deployed in a production environment, enabling investors to access real-time predictions and make informed trading decisions. The model will be continuously monitored and updated to adapt to changing market conditions and ensure its ongoing effectiveness.


Through this comprehensive approach, we aim to develop a machine learning model that provides accurate and reliable predictions for HIFS stock. By leveraging historical data, feature engineering, and rigorous evaluation techniques, we strive to empower investors with valuable insights to navigate the complexities of the stock market.


ML Model Testing

F(Pearson Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HIFS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of HIFS stock holders

a:Best response for HIFS target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

HIFS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings Financial Analysis*

Hingham is a profitable financial institution with consistent financial performance. Revenue and net income have a steady growth over the past three years. In 2022, the net income increased by 43.98% to $34.14 million, compared to a $23.72 million net income the previous year. Similarly, the total revenue rose by 10.29% to $98.98 million in 2022, from $89.71 million in 2021. The financial highlights indicate a stable financial position with sustainable growth.


Hingham maintains a sound asset quality, with a low level of non-performing loans. The non-performing loans to total loans ratio has been consistently below 0.30% in the past three years. In 2022, the ratio was at 0.26%, which is lower than the industry average of 0.92%. This demonstrates Hingham's effective risk management and credit underwriting practices.


Hingham has a strong capital position, with capital ratios consistently exceeding regulatory requirements. The Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 12.53% in 2022, well above the regulatory minimum of 8%. This indicates that Hingham has sufficient capital to absorb potential losses and maintain its operations in a challenging economic environment.


Hingham's funding profile is predominantly deposit-based, providing a stable source of funding. The loan-to-deposit ratio was 83.94% in 2022, which is considered a prudent level of lending relative to deposits. This indicates that Hingham has a solid foundation to support its lending activities and manage liquidity risks.


Hingham's profitability metrics compare favorably to industry peers. The net interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, was 3.18% in 2022, higher than the industry average of 2.96%. The return on average assets (ROAA) and return on average equity (ROAE) were also above industry averages, indicating Hingham's efficient use of assets and equity to generate profits.


The economic outlook for Hingham's primary market area, the South Shore of Massachusetts, is generally positive. The region has a diversified economy with a mix of industries, including healthcare, manufacturing, and financial services. The unemployment rate has been consistently below the national average, and the housing market has shown resilience despite rising interest rates.


However, the financial services industry faces ongoing challenges, including increasing competition, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. Hingham will need to adapt its strategies and operations to stay competitive and maintain its market position. Embracing digital transformation, investing in cybersecurity, and enhancing customer service will be crucial for its future success.


Overall, Hingham Institution for Savings is a financially sound institution with a strong track record of performance. The steady growth in revenue and net income, combined with solid asset quality, capital position, and funding profile, underscore its financial strength. As Hingham navigates the evolving economic and industry landscape, its ability to adapt and innovate will be key to maintaining its competitive edge and achieving continued success.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Income StatementB2B1
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2C
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Hingham Institution for Savings Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Hingham Institution for Savings (Hingham Savings) is a mutually owned savings bank headquartered in Hingham, Massachusetts, with a rich history dating back to 1834. Over the years, the bank has built a strong reputation as a trusted financial institution, serving the needs of its customers and fostering economic growth in the communities it serves.


With a vision to remain a leading provider of financial services in its region, Hingham Savings is poised for continued success and growth in the future. The bank's focus on delivering exceptional customer service, expanding its product offerings, and embracing technological advancements will shape its future outlook.


Customer-Centric Approach:

At the core of Hingham Savings' strategy is its unwavering commitment to providing exceptional customer service. The bank recognizes that its customers are the heart of its business and strives to deliver a seamless and personalized banking experience. By understanding their customers' needs and delivering tailored financial solutions, Hingham Savings aims to maintain its position as a trusted advisor.


Expanding Product Portfolio:

Hingham Savings recognizes the evolving financial landscape and the need to diversify its product offerings to meet the changing demands of its customers. The bank is continuously exploring opportunities to expand its portfolio, introducing innovative products and services that align with its customers' evolving needs. This strategic approach allows Hingham Savings to stay competitive and attract new customers.


Embracing Technology:

In an increasingly digital world, Hingham Savings embraces technology to enhance its banking services and provide convenience to its customers. The bank invests in cutting-edge technology to improve its online and mobile banking platforms, enabling customers to manage their finances anytime, anywhere. Hingham Savings understands the importance of cybersecurity and continuously upgrades its security measures to protect customers' financial information.


Community Involvement:

Hingham Savings is deeply rooted in the communities it serves and takes pride in its role as a responsible corporate citizen. The bank actively engages in community initiatives, supporting local businesses, charitable organizations, and educational programs. By fostering strong relationships with its communities, Hingham Savings aims to make a positive impact and contribute to the overall well-being of its customers and neighbors.


Financial Stability:

Hingham Savings' financial strength and stability have been recognized by independent rating agencies. The bank maintains healthy capital levels, strong liquidity, and a diversified loan portfolio, positioning it well to navigate economic challenges and continue its growth trajectory.


In conclusion, Hingham Savings' future outlook is promising, driven by its customer-centric approach, expanding product portfolio, embrace of technology, community involvement, and financial stability. The bank is well-positioned to continue delivering exceptional financial services, supporting its customers' financial goals, and contributing to the economic vitality of its communities for many years to come.

Operating Efficiency

Hingham Institution for Savings' (Hingham) operations remain efficient, reflected in its efficiency ratio consistently below industry benchmarks.


In 2021, Hingham's efficiency ratio stood at 50.3%, a marginal increase from 49.7% in 2020. It compares favorably to the industry average efficiency ratio of 58.4% reported by the FDIC. Hingham's ability to maintain a low efficiency ratio demonstrates its effective management of expenses relative to its revenue generation.


The efficiency ratio is a key metric used to assess a bank's operating efficiency, calculated as the percentage of non-interest expenses to total revenue. A lower efficiency ratio generally indicates better operational efficiency, as the bank can generate more revenue with fewer expenses.


Hingham's operating efficiency is driven by several factors, including its focus on cost control, prudent expense management, and effective revenue-generating strategies. The bank's disciplined approach to expenses allows it to allocate resources efficiently and minimize operating costs.


Furthermore, Hingham's strong customer base and reputation in the community contribute to its operational efficiency. The bank's long-standing relationships with customers often result in lower customer acquisition and retention costs. Additionally, Hingham's commitment to providing excellent customer service helps attract and retain customers, leading to a stable revenue stream.


The bank's efficiency enables it to allocate more resources towards strategic initiatives, such as investing in technology, expanding product offerings, and improving customer service. These investments can drive future growth and enhance the overall customer experience.


Hingham's continued focus on operational efficiency positions it well to navigate economic challenges and deliver value to its customers and shareholders.

Risk Assessment

Hingham Institution for Savings, commonly known as Hingham Savings, prioritizes risk management to ensure the security of its operations, customers' funds, and overall financial stability. Its risk assessment framework encompasses a comprehensive approach to identifying, evaluating, and mitigating potential risks.


The institution maintains a strong capital position, surpassing regulatory requirements, to serve as a buffer against potential losses and maintain financial resilience. It regularly reviews its capital adequacy and adjusts it based on risk exposures, ensuring its ability to absorb unforeseen shocks.


Hingham Savings employs a robust credit risk management system to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers and mitigate the risk of loan defaults. It evaluates factors such as borrowers' credit histories, income stability, and debt-to-income ratios to make informed lending decisions. The institution also maintains a diversified loan portfolio, minimizing its exposure to any single industry or sector.


Additionally, Hingham Savings actively manages interest rate risk to safeguard its earnings and protect its depositors' funds. It employs strategies such as hedging and asset-liability management to mitigate the impact of interest rate fluctuations on its financial results.


The institution places great importance on operational risk management to prevent and minimize the impact of internal processes, systems, and human errors. It maintains robust internal controls, including segregation of duties, authorization procedures, and regular audits, to ensure the integrity of its operations.


Hingham Savings recognizes the importance of cybersecurity in protecting customer data, financial assets, and the institution's reputation. It implements advanced cybersecurity measures, including firewalls, intrusion detection systems, and encryption technologies, to safeguard its digital infrastructure and customer information.


The institution remains vigilant in monitoring emerging risks and adapting its risk management strategies accordingly. It conducts regular risk assessments, stress tests, and scenario analyses to anticipate potential risks and develop proactive mitigation plans.


Hingham Savings' comprehensive risk assessment framework, coupled with its commitment to sound risk management practices, contributes to its financial stability, protects depositors' funds, and fosters confidence among its stakeholders.

References

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