Modelling A.I. in Economics

Tilly's Tanking: Is the Retailer's Stock Set to Sink? (TLYS)

Outlook: TLYS Tilly's Inc. is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Key Points

- Tilly's Inc. may continue its upward trend due to increased demand for athleisure wear among young consumers. - Tilly's Inc. might face challenges due to rising costs and competition in the retail sector. - Tilly's Inc. could explore new markets and expand its product offerings to drive growth and maintain its competitive edge.


Tilly's Inc., primarily known as Tilly's, is an American specialty retailer of action sports-related apparel, footwear, and accessories. It operates through approximately 240 stores located in shopping malls across the United States. The company's product offerings cater to young men and women, emphasizing skateboarding, surf, and other action sports cultures. Tilly's aims to provide a one-stop shopping experience for its customers, offering a wide selection of brands and products.

Founded in 1982 in Laguna Beach, California, Tilly's has since expanded its reach to become a leading retailer in the action sports market. The company focuses on delivering a unique and engaging shopping environment, often hosting events and promotions that align with its target audience's interests. Tilly's commitment to customer satisfaction and its dedication to the action sports community have contributed to its success and popularity among young consumers.


The Art of Stock Market Prophecy: Unveiling TLYS's Future Trajectory with Machine Learning

In the ever-fluctuating landscape of the stock market, investors embark on a quest to decipher the intricate patterns that govern price movements. Among these market participants, Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) emerges as a company whose stock trajectory has piqued the interest of data scientists and economists alike. To unravel the mysteries surrounding TLYS's future performance, we have meticulously crafted a machine learning model, an algorithmic oracle designed to pierce the veil of uncertainty and illuminate the path ahead.

Our model draws upon a vast tapestry of historical data, meticulously collected and curated to capture the nuances of TLYS's journey. It ingests a multitude of variables: quarterly earnings, market trends, consumer sentiment, and economic indicators, to name a few. These data points serve as the raw material, the building blocks from which our model constructs its intricate architecture. Through the application of sophisticated algorithms, the model discerns patterns, correlations, and hidden relationships that elude the naked eye. It learns from past triumphs and missteps, continually refining its understanding of the market's intricate dance.

Armed with this newfound knowledge, the model ventures into the realm of TLYS's future, navigating the treacherous waters of uncertainty. It generates predictions, not as absolute truths but as informed probabilities, offering investors a glimpse into the potential outcomes that lie ahead. These predictions serve as a compass, guiding investors through the market's turbulent seas, helping them adjust their course and mitigate risk. Our model stands as a testament to the power of data and the ingenuity of human minds, a beacon of hope in a world where certainty is but a fleeting illusion.

ML Model Testing

F(Lasso Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TLYS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of TLYS stock holders

a:Best response for TLYS target price


For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

TLYS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Tilly's Inc.: Navigating the Evolving Retail Landscape

Tilly's Inc., a leading specialty retailer of action sports, lifestyle, and street-inspired apparel, footwear, and accessories, has weathered the challenges of a dynamic retail landscape to emerge with a promising financial outlook. Despite the headwinds faced by the broader retail industry, Tilly's Inc. has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, positioning itself for continued growth and profitability.

The company's focus on its core customer base, strategic store expansion, and omnichannel integration has contributed to its sustained success. Tilly's Inc. has cultivated a loyal following among Gen Z and Millennial consumers, who appreciate its authentic brand identity, curated product selection, and engaging shopping experience. By catering to this demographic's unique preferences and values, the company has carved out a niche in the competitive retail market.

Tilly's Inc.'s strategic store expansion has played a crucial role in driving growth. The company has selectively opened new locations in key markets, expanding its physical presence and enhancing its brand visibility. This measured approach to growth ensures that each new store contributes to the company's overall profitability while minimizing risk. Additionally, Tilly's Inc.'s omnichannel strategy has enabled it to seamlessly integrate its online and offline channels, providing customers with a convenient and cohesive shopping experience. The company's robust e-commerce platform and mobile app have complemented its brick-and-mortar stores, allowing it to reach a broader customer base and cater to evolving shopping preferences.

Looking ahead, Tilly's Inc. is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and navigate potential challenges. The company's strong brand recognition, loyal customer base, and adaptable business model provide a solid foundation for future success. As the retail landscape continues to evolve, Tilly's Inc. is poised to maintain its competitive edge by staying attuned to consumer trends, investing in technology, and optimizing its operations. With a clear focus on its core strengths and a commitment to innovation, the company is well-positioned for sustained growth and profitability in the years to come.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBa1B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Tilly's Inc.: Navigating the Evolving Retail Landscape

Tilly's Inc., a leading specialty retailer of casual apparel, accessories, and footwear for young men, women, and kids, operates over 600 stores across the United States and Canada. The company's market positioning centers around providing on-trend, value-oriented products that cater to the fashion-conscious younger generation.

The competitive landscape in the specialty retail industry is dynamic and constantly evolving. Tilly's faces direct competition from established players like Zumiez, PacSun, and American Eagle Outfitters, as well as emerging online retailers and fast-fashion brands. To stay competitive, Tilly's focuses on product differentiation, omnichannel integration, and customer engagement strategies.

The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market trends is crucial for its continued success. Tilly's has demonstrated agility in introducing new product lines, refreshing its store concepts, and leveraging digital channels to connect with customers. Moreover, its focus on sustainability and ethical practices resonates with the environmentally and socially conscious younger generation.

Despite the challenges posed by the evolving retail landscape, Tilly's Inc. is well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the specialty retail sector. Its strong brand recognition, loyal customer base, and adaptability to changing market dynamics provide a solid foundation for future growth. By continuing to innovate, optimize its omnichannel strategy, and cater to the evolving needs of its target audience, Tilly's is poised to navigate the competitive landscape and thrive in the years to come.

Tilly's Inc.: Navigating the Evolving Retail Landscape

Tilly's Inc., a leading specialty retailer catering to young adults, stands poised to navigate the ever-changing retail landscape with strategic initiatives and a focus on enhancing customer experience. As the retail industry continues to witness disruptions, Tilly's adaptability and resilience will play a pivotal role in shaping its future outlook.

Tilly's commitment to omnichannel integration, blending the physical and digital shopping experiences, is a key factor in its future success. With the seamless integration of online and in-store channels, the company aims to provide customers with a convenient and personalized shopping experience. By leveraging technology and customer data, Tilly's can create a unified platform that caters to the evolving preferences and expectations of modern consumers.

Furthermore, Tilly's emphasis on product differentiation and brand partnerships will continue to drive its growth trajectory. By collaborating with popular brands and introducing exclusive products, the company can cater to the unique tastes and preferences of its target audience. This focus on product innovation and trendsetting will help Tilly's maintain its position as a leader in the youth fashion retail segment.

Tilly's commitment to sustainability and ethical sourcing practices is another important aspect of its future outlook. As consumers become increasingly conscious of the environmental and social impact of their purchases, Tilly's focus on responsible sourcing and eco-friendly practices will resonate with its target audience. By adopting sustainable practices throughout its supply chain and operations, Tilly's can not only reduce its environmental footprint but also strengthen its brand image as a socially responsible company.

Increasing Profitability through Enhanced Efficiency: A Study on Tilly's Operating Performance

Tilly's Inc., a leading specialty retailer of action sports, fashion and lifestyle apparel and accessories, has consistently demonstrated strong operating efficiency. The company's focus on cost control, inventory management, and effective supply chain operations has resulted in improved profitability and sustained growth. Tilly's strategic initiatives have enabled it to maintain a lean cost structure, optimize inventory levels, and enhance operational efficiency, ultimately driving increased shareholder value.

Tilly's commitment to operational efficiency is reflected in its disciplined approach to cost management. The company has implemented various measures to optimize expenses, including prudent inventory purchasing practices, effective negotiation of terms with suppliers, and meticulous control over operating costs. This cost-conscious approach has contributed to the company's ability to maintain healthy profit margins and generate strong cash flow.

Inventory management is another area where Tilly's has achieved notable success. The company's sophisticated inventory management system allows for effective control over stock levels, minimizing the risk of obsolescence and optimizing the flow of goods. Tilly's utilizes advanced analytics to forecast demand accurately, ensuring that products are available to meet customer needs without incurring excessive carrying costs. This efficient inventory management has resulted in improved inventory turnover ratios and enhanced profit margins.

In addition to cost control and inventory management, Tilly's has also invested in optimizing its supply chain operations. The company's strategic partnerships with suppliers and logistics providers have enabled it to streamline the flow of goods, reduce lead times, and enhance overall supply chain efficiency. Tilly's has implemented modern technology solutions to facilitate real-time tracking of shipments, improve order fulfillment accuracy, and optimize warehouse operations. These initiatives have contributed to reduced supply chain costs, improved customer satisfaction, and increased sales.

Assessing Potential Roadblocks: Tilly's Inc. Risk Assessment

Tilly's Inc., a leading specialty retailer, operates across the United States, catering to the fashion-conscious youth market. With a substantial brick-and-mortar presence complemented by a robust e-commerce platform, the company has carved a niche in the fashion industry. To ensure sustained growth and resilience in the face of ever-changing market dynamics, Tilly's Inc. engages in a comprehensive risk assessment process, identifying potential obstacles and devising strategies to mitigate their impact.

One key area of focus for Tilly's Inc. is the evolving retail landscape. The company recognizes the growing influence of online shopping and the changing consumer preferences that favor convenience and personalization. To address this challenge, Tilly's Inc. continuously invests in enhancing its e-commerce platform, offering seamless shopping experiences, targeted promotions, and efficient order fulfillment. Additionally, the company explores strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its reach and cater to a broader customer base.

Tilly's Inc. also places significant emphasis on supply chain management to minimize risks associated with disruptions, delays, and quality issues. The company collaborates closely with suppliers to ensure timely deliveries, maintain product quality, and mitigate potential disruptions. Tilly's Inc. diversifies its sourcing options and maintains safety stock levels to cushion against unforeseen events that may affect the supply chain.

In the realm of financial management, Tilly's Inc. adopts a prudent approach to ensure long-term financial stability and growth. The company closely monitors its cash flow, debt levels, and profitability metrics to make informed decisions regarding investments, cost control, and capital allocation. Tilly's Inc. maintains a strong balance sheet with sufficient liquidity to navigate economic downturns and capitalize on growth opportunities.


  1. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  4. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  7. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014


  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.