Modelling A.I. in Economics

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Outlook: UCBI United Community Banks Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

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Summary

United operates as a community banking institution. The firm provides various retail and commercial banking services, including deposit, lending, and other financial services to customers in the eastern United States. United provides a range of personal deposit products, consisting of checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts. The company also offers commercial deposit products, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing demand, money market, and time deposit accounts.


United provides various residential mortgage loans, including fixed-rate mortgages, adjustable-rate mortgages, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans, and Veterans Administration (VA) loans. The firm offers commercial and industrial loans, including equipment loans, working capital loans, and lines of credit. United also provides other financial services, including trust and investment management services, credit card services, and electronic banking services. The company operates through a network of 209 offices in seven states.

UCBI
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ML Model Testing

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 1 Year S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UCBI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of UCBI stock holders

a:Best response for UCBI target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

UCBI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

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Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Income StatementCC
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2B2
Cash FlowBa3B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?This exclusive content is only available to premium users.This exclusive content is only available to premium users.

United Community Banks' Operating Efficiency Enhanced

United Community Banks Inc.'s (UCB) operating efficiency has improved significantly over the past few years, driven by a number of factors, including expense reduction initiatives and revenue growth. The company's efficiency ratio, which measures expenses as a percentage of revenue, has declined from 63.2% in 2018 to 57.5% in 2022. This improvement reflects the company's efforts to streamline operations and reduce costs while maintaining revenue growth. UCB's focus on expense reduction has included initiatives such as branch closures, technology upgrades, and workforce optimization.


In addition to expense reduction, UCB has also focused on revenue growth to improve its operating efficiency. The company has grown its loan portfolio and increased its fee-based income over the past few years. These efforts have helped to offset the impact of margin compression on net interest income. As a result, UCB's operating revenue has increased from $1.0 billion in 2018 to $1.2 billion in 2022.


The improvement in UCB's operating efficiency has had a positive impact on its profitability. The company's net income has increased from $214.9 million in 2018 to $273.2 million in 2022. This growth in profitability has allowed UCB to increase its dividends to shareholders and invest in new growth initiatives.


UCB's improved operating efficiency is expected to continue to benefit the company in the future. The company's focus on expense reduction and revenue growth should help it to maintain its strong financial performance and continue to grow its earnings. As a result, UCB is well-positioned to continue to create value for its shareholders.

UCB Risk Assessment

United Community Banks, Inc. (UCB) is a financial holding company based in Blairsville, Georgia, with operations in the Southeastern United States. As of December 31, 2022, UCB had approximately $30 billion in assets and operated more than 250 offices in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.


UCB faces a number of risks that could affect its financial performance. These risks include:

  • Credit risk: UCB is exposed to credit risk, which is the risk that borrowers will default on their loans. This risk is particularly relevant for UCB, as a significant portion of its loan portfolio consists of commercial and residential real estate loans.
  • Interest rate risk: UCB is exposed to interest rate risk, which is the risk that changes in interest rates will adversely affect its financial performance. This risk is particularly relevant for UCB, as a significant portion of its deposits are interest-bearing.
  • Liquidity risk: UCB is exposed to liquidity risk, which is the risk that it will not be able to meet its financial obligations when they come due. This risk is particularly relevant for UCB, as it relies on both short-term and long-term funding sources.
  • Operational risk: UCB is exposed to operational risk, which is the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, and systems or from external events.

UCB has implemented a number of policies and procedures to mitigate these risks. These measures include:

  • Maintaining a diversified loan portfolio
  • Managing its interest rate risk exposure
  • Maintaining a strong capital base
  • Implementing sound operational controls

Despite these measures, UCB remains exposed to a number of risks that could affect its financial performance. Investors should carefully consider these risks before investing in UCB.

References

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