Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is iShares MSCI Poland ETF the Gateway to Emerging Market Growth? (Forecast)

Outlook: iShares MSCI Poland ETF is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Transfer Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

Positive economic outlook supported by strong domestic consumption and EU funds. Risk of political instability and geopolitical tensions with Russia. Exposure to global economic headwinds and potential for currency fluctuations. Risk of underperformance if the global economy weakens.

Summary

The iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the MSCI Poland Index, which measures the performance of large and mid-cap companies in Poland. The fund provides investors with exposure to the Polish equity market in a single, diversified investment vehicle. EPOL is managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors and was launched in 2007.


The fund invests in a wide range of sectors, including financials, consumer staples, energy, and industrials. EPOL is a highly liquid ETF with a low expense ratio, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to the Polish market. The fund's top holdings include PKN Orlen, Santander Bank Polska, and Bank Pekao. EPOL is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of over $400 million.

iShares MSCI Poland ETF

iShares MSCI Poland ETF Prediction: A Machine Learning Approach

Predicting the future performance of iShares MSCI Poland ETF is crucial for investors seeking to optimize their portfolios. This ETF tracks the performance of Polish companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, offering exposure to the Polish equity market. To enhance prediction accuracy, we have developed a machine learning model that leverages historical data and market insights.


Our model incorporates a range of predictive features, including economic indicators, market sentiment, and technical analysis. It employs supervised learning algorithms, which are trained on historical data to identify patterns and relationships that can inform future predictions. By analyzing vast amounts of data, our model can uncover hidden insights and identify trends that may not be apparent to human analysts. This enables us to make more accurate and informed predictions about the ETF's future performance.


Our machine learning model is continuously refined and updated to ensure its predictive power remains robust. We monitor market developments closely and incorporate new data and insights into the model as they emerge. This ensures that our predictions are timely and reflect the latest market dynamics. By leveraging the power of machine learning, we aim to provide investors with a valuable tool for making informed investment decisions and achieving superior returns.

ML Model Testing

F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 1 Year R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of iShares MSCI Poland ETF

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of iShares MSCI Poland ETF holders

a:Best response for iShares MSCI Poland ETF target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

iShares MSCI Poland ETF Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

iShares MSCI Poland ETF: A Promising Outlook Amidst Global Uncertainty

The iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) offers exposure to the Polish equity market. The fund tracks the MSCI Poland Index and invests in a diversified portfolio of Polish companies across various sectors, including financials, energy, consumer staples, and industrials. Poland's economy has been growing steadily in recent years, driven by strong domestic demand and robust exports. The country has also benefited from European Union membership, which has provided access to larger markets and foreign investment. Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in the region, EPOL's fundamentals remain strong.

The Polish economy is expected to continue growing in the coming years, supported by government stimulus measures and increasing consumer spending. The country has a relatively low level of government debt and a strong banking sector, which provides stability to the financial system. Inflation has been rising in recent months, but the central bank is expected to take steps to keep it under control. The Polish zloty has been relatively stable against the euro, which provides some protection against currency fluctuations.

EPOL's portfolio is well-diversified and includes some of the largest and most successful companies in Poland. The fund has a low expense ratio of 0.48%, making it an attractive option for investors looking for exposure to the Polish market. The fund's historical performance has been strong, with an average annual return of over 10% over the past five years. However, it is important to note that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Overall, the iShares MSCI Poland ETF offers investors a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to the Polish equity market. The country has a strong economy, a stable financial system, and a well-diversified portfolio. While there are always risks associated with investing in emerging markets, EPOL provides a relatively low-cost and convenient way to access this potentially lucrative market. Investors should consider their own risk tolerance and investment goals before investing in EPOL or any other ETF.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Income StatementB2B1
Balance SheetB1C
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowCBa3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B2

*An aggregate rating for an ETF summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the ETF. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the ETF, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the ETF's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

iShares MSCI Poland ETF: Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

The iShares MSCI Poland ETF (NYSE: EPOL) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the MSCI Poland Index, a market-capitalization-weighted index of the largest publicly traded companies in Poland. As of May 2023, EPOL has approximately $300 million in assets under management and has an expense ratio of 0.49%. EPOL offers investors a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to the Polish stock market.


The Polish stock market has historically been a strong performer, with annualized returns of over 10% over the past decade. This growth has been driven by a number of factors, including Poland's strong economic growth, its favorable demographics, and its improving corporate governance. Poland is the largest economy in Central Europe and has a population of over 38 million people. The country has a young and educated workforce, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment.


EPOL is the largest and most liquid ETF that provides exposure to the Polish stock market. The fund's top holdings include PKN Orlen, a major oil and gas company; PZU, the largest insurer in Poland; and LPP, a leading retailer. EPOL provides investors with broad exposure to the Polish stock market, and its low expense ratio makes it an attractive option for long-term investors.


There are a number of other ETFs that provide exposure to the Polish stock market, including the Xtrackers FTSE Poland ETF (NYSE: XPLP) and the VanEck Vectors Poland ETF (NYSE: PLND). However, EPOL is the most popular and liquid of these ETFs, and it offers investors a number of advantages over its competitors, including a lower expense ratio and a more diversified portfolio.


iShares MSCI Poland ETF: Bright Future Ahead

The iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) offers investors exposure to the Polish stock market. Poland's economy has been growing steadily in recent years, and its stock market has outperformed many other developed markets. EPOL provides investors with a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to this promising market.


Poland's GDP growth is expected to continue in the coming years, driven by strong consumer spending and investment. The country's unemployment rate is also low, and its inflation rate is well under control. These factors are all supportive of the Polish stock market's continued growth.


In addition to its strong economic fundamentals, Poland also has a number of attractive investment opportunities. The country is home to a number of large and successful companies, including banks, energy companies, and telecommunications companies. EPOL provides investors with access to these companies through a single investment.


The iShares MSCI Poland ETF is a well-diversified fund that provides investors with exposure to a broad range of Polish stocks. The fund is also relatively inexpensive, with an expense ratio of just 0.48%. Overall, EPOL is an attractive investment option for investors who are looking to gain exposure to the Polish stock market.

iShares MSCI Poland ETF: Recent Developments and Market Outlook

The iShares MSCI Poland ETF (NYSE: EPOL) has been experiencing some volatility in recent months, reflecting the wider market uncertainty amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. The index underlying the ETF, the MSCI Poland Index, has declined over the past few weeks, mirroring the broader sell-off in emerging market assets.


One of the key factors influencing the performance of EPOL is the earnings outlook for Polish companies. Several companies in the index have reported disappointing earnings in recent quarters, raising concerns about the impact of inflation and supply chain disruptions on their profitability. The ETF's heavy exposure to the banking sector, which faces challenges from rising interest rates and potential loan defaults, has also weighed on its performance.


Despite the recent pullback, EPOL remains a popular choice for investors seeking exposure to the Polish stock market. Poland has a relatively strong economy, with a GDP growth rate of over 4% in 2022. The country has also benefited from a surge in foreign investment, particularly in the manufacturing and technology sectors. The ETF provides a diversified investment in Poland's leading companies across various industries, making it a suitable option for long-term investors.


In the coming months, the performance of EPOL will likely depend on several factors, including the trajectory of inflation, interest rates, and the geopolitical situation. If these factors improve, the ETF could recover some of its recent losses. However, investors should remain cautious of the potential risks associated with investing in emerging markets.


iShares MSCI Poland ETF: Risk Assessment


The iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the MSCI Poland Index. The index is composed of companies that are domiciled in Poland and are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. EPOL provides investors with exposure to the Polish economy and can be used as a tool for diversification or to gain exposure to emerging markets.


The risk assessment for EPOL should consider several factors, including country risk, currency risk, and market risk. Country risk refers to the political and economic stability of Poland. Poland is a member of the European Union and has a stable political and economic environment. However, like all countries, Poland is subject to political and economic risks, which could impact the performance of EPOL.


Currency risk refers to the risk that the value of the Polish zloty will fluctuate against the US dollar. EPOL is denominated in US dollars, so a decline in the value of the zloty could lead to a decline in the value of EPOL. Market risk refers to the risk that the overall stock market will decline. EPOL is subject to market risk, and a decline in the stock market could lead to a decline in the value of EPOL.


Overall, EPOL is a relatively low-risk investment. However, investors should be aware of the potential risks associated with investing in EPOL, including country risk, currency risk, and market risk. Investors should also consider their own individual risk tolerance and investment goals before investing in EPOL.

References

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