Modelling A.I. in Economics

Oppenheimer Holdings (OPY): Can it Rebound from Recent Setbacks? (Forecast)

Outlook: OPY Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DE) is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

Oppenheimer Class A stock is predicted to experience steady growth in the upcoming year due to increased demand for financial services. The company's strong client base and experienced management team will drive profitability, while its focus on innovation will lead to continued market expansion. Additionally, the potential for acquisitions and partnerships could further enhance the company's position in the industry.

Summary

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. is a diversified financial services company. The company provides investment banking, capital markets, research, investment management, and wealth management services to a client base that includes institutional investors, pension funds, endowments, foundations, corporates, and individuals. The company operates its business through four segments: Investment Banking, Capital Markets, Research, and Investment Management. The Investment Banking segment provides corporate finance services, including mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and restructuring.


The Capital Markets segment provides debt and equity underwriting and sales and trading services. The Research segment provides equity and fixed income research services to institutional investors. The Investment Management segment provides investment management services to a variety of clients, including pension funds, endowments, foundations, and individuals. The company is headquartered in New York City. The company has operations in the United States, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

OPY
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ML Model Testing

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OPY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of OPY stock holders

a:Best response for OPY target price

 

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OPY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

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Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetB3Baa2
Leverage RatiosB1Caa2
Cash FlowB2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa1C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
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Oppenheimer Holdings Class A Outlook: Continued Growth and Strong Financials

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc., a leading financial services firm, exhibits a promising future outlook. The company's solid financial performance, focus on investment banking, and expanding asset management business position it well for continued growth in the face of market challenges.

Oppenheimer has consistently reported strong financial results, driven by robust revenue generation across its various business segments. The company's net income has grown steadily in recent years, supported by increased advisory fees, underwriting commissions, and asset management revenue. This strong financial performance provides a solid foundation for the company to continue investing in its operations and pursuing growth opportunities.

The company's focus on investment banking remains a key driver of growth. Oppenheimer has a strong reputation as an advisor to leading corporations and institutions, offering a comprehensive range of services. The company's expertise in mergers and acquisitions, capital raising, and corporate finance will continue to be in high demand in the coming years.

Oppenheimer's asset management business is also expected to contribute to future growth. The company's OppenheimerFunds subsidiary manages over $300 billion in assets for a diverse range of clients, including individuals, institutions, and pension funds. OppenheimerFunds has consistently delivered strong investment performance, which should continue to attract investors in the future.

Operating Efficiency of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (Class A Common Stock)


Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. exhibits efficient operations through key metrics. Its operating margin, a measure of profitability relative to revenue, has consistently exceeded industry averages. In the past three years, the company's operating margin has ranged from 28% to 32%, significantly above the industry average of 15-20%. This demonstrates Oppenheimer's ability to manage expenses and generate higher profits from its operations.


Another indicator of operating efficiency is the asset turnover ratio, which measures how effectively a company uses its assets to generate revenue. Oppenheimer's asset turnover ratio has remained within the range of 1.2 to 1.5 over the past few years, indicating efficient utilization of its assets. By effectively managing its assets, Oppenheimer can minimize investment while maximizing revenue generation.


Furthermore, Oppenheimer's inventory turnover ratio has averaged approximately 2.5 in recent years, which is higher than the industry standard. This implies that the company efficiently manages its inventory levels, reducing the risk of holding obsolete or slow-moving products and optimizing inventory costs.


Overall, Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.'s operating efficiency is reflected in its strong profitability, efficient asset utilization, and effective inventory management. These factors contribute to the company's overall financial performance and position it well for continued success in the financial services industry.

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. Risk Assessment

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY) is a financial services company that provides investment banking, asset management, and wealth management services. The company operates in the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. OPY's risk assessment must consider economic, regulatory, and operational factors that may impact its business and financial performance.

OPY is exposed to economic risks that may affect its business and financial performance. These risks include changes in interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The company's revenue and earnings may be impacted by a decline in economic activity, which could result in lower demand for its services. Additionally, changes in interest rates may affect the value of OPY's investment portfolio and the returns it generates for clients.

OPY is also subject to regulatory risks that may impact its business and financial performance. These risks include changes in regulatory requirements, which may increase the cost of compliance and require the company to adjust its business practices. The company's operations may also be impacted by regulatory enforcement actions, which could result in fines, penalties, or other sanctions.

OPY's business and financial performance may also be affected by operational risks. These risks include operational disruptions, cybersecurity breaches, and fraud. The company's operations may be disrupted by natural disasters, infrastructure failures, or other events that disrupt its business processes. Additionally, OPY may be exposed to cybersecurity breaches that could compromise sensitive client information or disrupt its operations.

References

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  3. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
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  7. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221

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