Modelling A.I. in Economics

Persimmon's (PSN) Plummeting Profits: Cause for Concern?

Outlook: PSN Persimmon is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Key Points

Persimmon's strong financial performance and industry tailwinds will likely drive continued growth in its stock value. Its focus on affordable housing and land acquisition should provide stability and resilience in the face of economic headwinds. However, rising interest rates and potential oversupply in certain regions could pose risks to its profitability and stock performance.


Persimmon is one of the leading housebuilders in the UK. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in York. Persimmon builds a range of properties, from apartments to detached houses, and has a strong focus on affordable housing. The company has a reputation for building high-quality homes and has won numerous awards for its work.

Persimmon is a publicly traded company and is listed on the FTSE 100 Index. The company has a strong financial performance and has a history of paying dividends to shareholders. Persimmon is committed to sustainability and has a number of initiatives in place to reduce its environmental impact. The company is also a major employer in the UK and provides jobs for thousands of people.

## PSN Stock Prediction Model

As an esteemed team of data scientists and economists, we have meticulously devised a cutting-edge machine learning model aimed at unraveling the enigmatic patterns governing Persimmon (PSN) stock movements. By leveraging a comprehensive dataset encompassing historical stock prices, macroeconomic indicators, and sentiment analysis, our model harnesses the power of supervised learning algorithms to make informed predictions about future PSN stock performance.

At the heart of our model lies a multifaceted ensemble of time series forecasting techniques, each meticulously chosen to capture specific aspects of PSN's price dynamics. These techniques include recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which excel at capturing temporal dependencies, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, renowned for their ability to model seasonal and trend components. By combining the strengths of these diverse algorithms, our model gains a comprehensive understanding of the complex factors influencing PSN's stock behavior.

To further enhance the model's predictive power, we incorporate sentiment analysis into the equation. By analyzing social media sentiment and news articles related to PSN, our model can gauge the prevailing market sentiment towards the company. This invaluable information provides unique insights into potential shifts in investor sentiment, which can have a profound impact on stock prices. By carefully synthesizing these diverse data sources, our machine learning model emerges as a sophisticated tool for forecasting PSN stock movements with remarkable accuracy.

ML Model Testing

F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 16 Weeks R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PSN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of PSN stock holders

a:Best response for PSN target price


For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

PSN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Persimmon's Financial Outlook and Predictions

Persimmon, a leading UK homebuilder, has a positive financial outlook with strong demand for new homes and a robust balance sheet. The company's revenue and profits have grown steadily in recent years, and analysts expect this trend to continue. Persimmon has a large land bank and a strong pipeline of new developments, which will support future growth.

One of the key drivers of Persimmon's financial success is the strong demand for new homes in the UK. The population is growing, and there is a shortage of affordable housing. This has led to a rise in house prices, which has benefited Persimmon. The company has also been able to increase its profit margins by improving its construction efficiency and reducing its costs.

Persimmon's financial outlook is also supported by its strong balance sheet. The company has a low level of debt and a significant amount of cash on hand. This gives it the financial flexibility to invest in new developments and acquire land. Persimmon also has a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Analysts are generally positive on Persimmon's financial outlook. The consensus among analysts is that the company's revenue and profits will continue to grow in the coming years. Persimmon is well-positioned to benefit from the strong demand for new homes in the UK and its strong financial position.
However, there are some risks to Persimmon's financial outlook. The UK housing market is cyclical, and there is always the risk of a downturn. A downturn in the housing market could lead to a decline in Persimmon's revenue and profits. Additionally, Persimmon is facing increasing competition from other homebuilders. This could put pressure on the company's margins and make it more difficult to grow.
Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Income StatementCaa2B1
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Persimmon: Market Overview and Competitive Insight

Persimmon, a leading UK homebuilder, operates in a dynamic market characterised by rising urbanisation, changing demographics, and increasing demand for affordable housing. The industry has been influenced by factors such as government policies, interest rate fluctuations, and economic conditions. Despite challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, Persimmon has demonstrated resilience and continued to deliver homes to meet the evolving needs of customers.

Persimmon faces competition from a range of players, including both smaller regional and larger national homebuilders. Some of their key competitors include Barratt Developments, Taylor Wimpey, and Bellway. Each of these companies has its own strengths and weaknesses, but all operate in the same market and compete for market share. Persimmon differentiates itself through its focus on efficiency and affordability, targeting first-time buyers and families looking to upgrade their homes.

The UK homebuilding market outlook remains positive, driven by factors such as low interest rates, government incentives for first-time buyers, and a growing population. However, the industry also faces challenges such as rising land costs, supply chain disruptions, and the need for increased affordability. Persimmon's strong financial position and track record of delivering high-quality homes position it well to navigate these challenges and continue to grow its market share.

In summary, Persimmon operates in a competitive but expanding market. The company's focus on efficiency and affordability has enabled it to gain market share and become a leading player in the UK homebuilding industry. While challenges remain, Persimmon's financial strength and commitment to delivering quality homes position it well for continued success in the years to come.

Persimmon Outlook: A Positive Forecast for Continued Growth

Persimmon, a leading UK housebuilder, enjoys a favorable future outlook underpinned by strong market fundamentals and a proven track record of success. The company benefits from a substantial landbank, providing it with a solid foundation for ongoing development and growth. Persimmon's commitment to delivering high-quality homes at affordable prices positions it well to cater to the increasing demand for housing in the UK.

The government's commitment to supporting homeownership through various schemes, such as Help to Buy, bodes well for Persimmon. These initiatives are expected to continue stimulating demand for new homes, further driving Persimmon's growth trajectory. Moreover, the company's focus on sustainability and energy efficiency aligns with the increasing consumer preference for environmentally conscious housing.

Persimmon's financial strength and operational efficiency provide a solid platform for future growth. The company has consistently delivered strong financial results, enabling it to invest in land acquisition and development. Persimmon's prudent financial management and cost control measures position it well to navigate potential market fluctuations and maintain profitability.

As Persimmon continues to execute its strategic initiatives, including expanding its operations in new regions and diversifying its product offerings, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for housing in the UK. With its strong market position, commitment to quality, and financial stability, Persimmon is expected to continue delivering robust performance and generating shareholder value in the years to come.

Persimmon Delivers Solid Operating Efficiency

Persimmon, a leading UK housebuilder, has consistently maintained a strong operating efficiency profile, enabling it to navigate market challenges and deliver consistent financial performance. The company's operating efficiency is supported by several factors:

Persimmon operates a lean and efficient business model, with a focus on cost control and productivity. The company has implemented various initiatives to improve its operations, including digitizing processes and optimizing supply chains. These initiatives have resulted in lower operating costs and improved margins.

Persimmon's land acquisition strategy is another key factor contributing to its operating efficiency. The company has a proven track record of securing land at competitive prices, which allows it to develop high-quality homes at attractive margins. Additionally, Persimmon's vertical integration model enables it to control the entire housebuilding process efficiently.

The company's strong brand reputation and customer loyalty also play a role in its operating efficiency. Persimmon consistently receives high customer satisfaction ratings, which translates into lower marketing costs and reduced customer acquisition costs. This allows the company to allocate more resources to core operations, further enhancing its efficiency.

Overall, Persimmon's operating efficiency is a key driver of its financial success. The company's lean operations, strategic land acquisition, vertical integration, and strong brand reputation position it well to continue delivering strong financial performance in the future.

Persimmon Risk Assessment

Persimmon, a leading UK housebuilder, faces potential risks that could impact its operations and financial performance. These include risks related to economic downturns, the housing market, regulatory changes, and environmental concerns. The company's ability to mitigate these risks will be crucial for its long-term success.

Persimmon is highly exposed to economic downturns. A recession could lead to a decline in demand for housing and make it more difficult for the company to sell its properties. The housing market is also cyclical, with periods of boom and bust. Persimmon's performance is highly correlated with the health of the housing market, and a downturn could significantly impact its revenue and profits.

Persimmon is also subject to regulatory changes that could impact its business. For example, the government could introduce new regulations that make it more difficult or expensive to build new homes. Additionally, the company could face environmental regulations that restrict its operations or increase its costs. Persimmon must stay abreast of regulatory changes and be prepared to adapt its business accordingly.

Climate change is another potential risk for Persimmon. The company's operations are energy-intensive, and it could be impacted by rising energy costs. Additionally, Persimmon's properties could be vulnerable to damage from extreme weather events. The company must invest in measures to reduce its environmental impact and make its properties more resilient to climate change.


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