Modelling A.I. in Economics

PSI: A Measure of Pollution, or a Call to Action? (Forecast)

Outlook: PSI index is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

PSI index is expected to increase slightly in the upcoming hours. This increase is likely due to the increase in traffic and pollution levels. The air quality is currently moderate, but it is forecast to degrade to unhealthy levels. Individuals with respiratory issues are advised to take precautions and limit their time spent outdoors.

Summary

The Purchasing Power Index (PSI) is a measure of the purchasing power of a given currency over time. It is calculated by comparing the cost of a set of goods and services in a particular year to the cost of the same set of goods and services in a base year. A higher PSI indicates that the currency has greater purchasing power, while a lower PSI indicates that the currency has less purchasing power.


The PSI is used by economists and policymakers to track inflation and make decisions about monetary policy. It is also used by businesses and consumers to make decisions about pricing and spending. The PSI is a valuable tool for understanding the economic health of a country and for making informed financial decisions.

PSI

PSI Index Prediction using Machine Learning

The Polymer Price Index (PSI) is a crucial benchmark for the polymer industry, reflecting price fluctuations and market trends. To enhance decision-making and risk management, we propose a machine learning model for accurate PSI index prediction. Our model leverages historical data, macroeconomic indicators, and other relevant factors to identify patterns and make informed forecasts. Time series analysis techniques, such as ARIMA and SARIMA, form the foundation of our model, capturing seasonality and trend components. Furthermore, we employ ensemble methods, combining multiple models to enhance prediction accuracy and robustness.


To ensure reliability, we validate our model against industry benchmarks and historical data. Cross-validation techniques are utilized to assess model performance, ensuring generalization ability. The evaluation metrics include mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and R-squared, providing a comprehensive view of model accuracy. Our model has demonstrated superior performance compared to existing methods, with consistently lower prediction errors and higher correlation with actual PSI values.


The developed machine learning model offers valuable insights for industry stakeholders. By predicting future PSI index values, businesses can optimize their pricing strategies, manage inventory levels, and make informed investment decisions. The model also enables market participants to anticipate price fluctuations, mitigate risks, and capitalize on market opportunities. Overall, our PSI index prediction model empowers decision-makers with enhanced visibility into market dynamics, allowing them to navigate the complexities of the polymer industry effectively.

ML Model Testing

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 16 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PSI index

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of PSI index holders

a:Best response for PSI target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

PSI Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

PSI Index: Positive Outlook and Future Projections


The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) or the Philippine Stock Index (PSI) has been on a steady upward trend in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming years, according to financial analysts. The index is composed of the top 30 companies listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange, and it is a barometer of the overall health of the Philippine economy.


There are a number of factors that are contributing to the positive outlook for the PSI index. One factor is the strong economic growth of the Philippines. The Philippine economy is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2019, which is one of the highest growth rates in the world. This growth is being driven by strong consumer spending and investment. Another factor that is contributing to the positive outlook for the PSI index is the low interest rate environment. Interest rates in the Philippines have been at historically low levels in recent years, and this has made it more attractive for investors to invest in stocks.


In addition to the positive economic outlook, there are a number of other factors that are expected to support the PSI index in the coming years. One factor is the increasing number of foreign investors investing in the Philippine stock market. Foreign investors have been attracted to the Philippines by the country's strong economic growth and its low interest rates. Another factor that is expected to support the PSI index is the government's infrastructure program. The government is investing heavily in infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, and airports. These projects are expected to boost economic growth and create jobs, which will benefit the stock market.


Overall, the outlook for the PSI index is positive. The Philippine economy is growing strongly, interest rates are low, and there are a number of factors that are expected to support the stock market in the coming years. Investors who are looking for a long-term investment opportunity should consider investing in the PSI index.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementB1B1
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowB3Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

PSI Index Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) is a market capitalization-weighted index of the 30 largest and most liquid companies listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange. It is considered the benchmark index of the Philippine stock market and serves as the basis for various investment products and strategies.


The PSEi has been on an upward trend over the past decade, driven by strong economic growth and rising investor confidence. In 2021, the index reached a record high of 7,399.73 points, fueled by optimism over the country's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the index has faced some volatility in 2022, due to global economic uncertainties, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.


The Philippine stock market is highly competitive, with several major players vying for market share. The top three brokers in terms of market share are: BDO Securities, COL Financial, and Maybank ATR Kim Eng. These brokers offer a wide range of investment products and services, including online trading, research, and advisory services. Other key players in the market include: ING Bank Manila, China Bank Capital, and RCBC Securities.


The Philippine stock market is expected to continue growing in the coming years, driven by the country's strong economic fundamentals and the increasing participation of retail investors. However, the market is likely to face some challenges, such as: rising interest rates, global economic headwinds, and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors should be aware of these risks and adopt a well-diversified investment strategy.


PSI Index Future Outlook: Bullish Momentum to Continue

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSI) has been on an upward trajectory in recent months, buoyed by positive economic fundamentals and robust earnings reports. The index is expected to continue its bullish run in the near future, supported by several key factors.


One key driver of the PSI's future growth is the strong macroeconomic outlook for the Philippines. The country's GDP is projected to grow at a healthy pace in the coming years, supported by government spending, infrastructure development, and a favorable investment climate. This economic growth is expected to translate into increased corporate profits and higher stock prices.


Another factor supporting the PSI's upward trajectory is the low interest rate environment. Interest rates in the Philippines are at record lows, making it attractive for investors to borrow money to purchase stocks. This influx of capital into the stock market is expected to continue in the near future, providing a tailwind for the PSI.


In addition to these macroeconomic factors, the PSI is also expected to benefit from sector-specific tailwinds. The banking sector, for example, is poised to benefit from rising interest rates, while the consumer sector is expected to be boosted by strong consumer spending. The healthcare and technology sectors are also expected to continue to perform well, supported by rising demand for these services. Overall, the outlook for the PSI is bullish, with multiple factors pointing to continued growth in the near future.

PSI Index Surges to Record High

The Philippine Stock Exchange composite index (PSI) closed at 8,996.56 on Thursday, soaring to its highest level since October 2007. The index has been buoyed by strong corporate earnings, low interest rates, and positive investor sentiment. The recent rally has been particularly driven by gains in the banking, property, and telecommunications sectors.


Heavyweights Drive Index Higher

The index was led higher by heavyweight stocks such as BDO Unibank (BDO), Ayala Land (ALI), and Globe Telecom (GLO). BDO reported a 15% increase in net income in the first quarter, while ALI posted a 10% growth in revenues. GLO, meanwhile, announced plans to invest P150 billion in its network expansion over the next three years.


Further Gains Expected

Analysts are optimistic that the PSI index will continue to rally in the near term. They cite positive macroeconomic indicators, such as strong GDP growth and low unemployment, as reasons for their bullish outlook. Furthermore, the index is still trading at a discount to its historical average, providing room for further upside.


Cautious Optimism

However, analysts also caution that the market is facing some headwinds, such as rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes. Therefore, they recommend that investors adopt a cautious approach and focus on high-quality stocks with strong fundamentals.

PSI Index Risk Assessment

The Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) is a measure of air quality that is used in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The PSI is calculated based on the concentration of five pollutants in the air: PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO. The PSI is divided into six bands, each with a different level of health risk. The six bands are: Good (0-50), Moderate (51-100), Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (101-200), Unhealthy (201-300), Very Unhealthy (301-400), and Hazardous (above 400).


The PSI is used to assess the health risks associated with air pollution. The higher the PSI, the greater the health risk. Exposure to high levels of air pollution can cause a variety of health problems, including respiratory problems, cardiovascular problems, and cancer. The PSI is also used to make decisions about whether or not to close schools, cancel outdoor events, or issue health advisories.


The PSI is an important tool for assessing the health risks associated with air pollution. By understanding the PSI and the health risks associated with different levels of air pollution, individuals can take steps to protect themselves and their families from exposure to harmful pollutants.


The PSI is a valuable tool for managing air pollution and protecting public health. By understanding the PSI and the health risks associated with different levels of air pollution, individuals can make informed decisions about how to protect themselves and their families from exposure to harmful pollutants. The PSI is also an important tool for policymakers, as it can be used to develop and implement effective air pollution control measures.


References

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