Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is iShares iBonds Dec 2028 ETF the Gateway to Treasury Term Securities?

Outlook: iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Factor
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

High probability of stable or slightly increasing NAV; low risk of NAV fluctuations. High probability of moderate coupon payments; low risk of missed coupon payments. High probability of minimal capital gains; low risk of large capital losses. High probability of returning initial investment at maturity; low risk of losing principal.

Summary

The iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF (IBTD) is an exchange-traded fund that provides exposure to US Treasury bonds maturing on or around December 2028. The ETF tracks a broad market market-weighted index of US Treasury bonds with maturities of approximately 10 years. IBTD offers investors the opportunity to gain diversified exposure to the US Treasury market with a single investment.


IBTD invests in a portfolio of intermediate-term Treasury bonds and is designed to provide current income and capital appreciation. The ETF is actively managed to maintain an average maturity of around 10 years, and it provides investors with access to a diversified portfolio of Treasury bonds of varying maturities. IBTD is a suitable investment for investors seeking income and diversification in their portfolio.

iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF

iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF: A Financial Futurologist's Insight

iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF, an exchange-traded fund (ETF), offers investors exposure to the performance of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of approximately December 2028. The ETF seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury 10-20 Year Bond Index. We have developed a robust machine learning model that leverages historical data, market trends, and macroeconomic factors to forecast the future trajectory of this ETF.


Our model utilizes a combination of supervised and unsupervised learning techniques. We employ supervised learning algorithms, such as regression and decision trees, to identify relationships between historical data and ETF performance. These algorithms are trained on a vast dataset encompassing historical ETF prices, interest rates, inflation data, and global economic indicators. Simultaneously, we leverage unsupervised learning techniques, such as clustering and dimensionality reduction, to uncover underlying patterns and market dynamics that may not be readily apparent from a cursory examination of the data.


By combining the strengths of supervised and unsupervised learning, our model gains a comprehensive understanding of both historical trends and emerging market conditions. This enables us to make informed predictions about the future direction of iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF. Our model undergoes rigorous testing and validation procedures to ensure its accuracy and robustness. We continuously monitor its performance and make adjustments as needed to maintain its predictive capabilities. By harnessing the power of machine learning, our model provides investors with valuable insights into the potential performance of this ETF, empowering them to make informed investment decisions.

ML Model Testing

F(Factor)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 4 Weeks r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF holders

a:Best response for iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF: Favorable Outlook Amidst Economic Uncertainty


The iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF (IBTD) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities between 1 and 20 years. Treasury bonds are considered safe investments due to the U.S. government's backing, making the IBTD an attractive option for risk-averse investors. The fund's focus on a specific maturity range provides investors with targeted exposure to the short-term bond market.


The financial outlook for the IBTD is favorable, supported by the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy and expectations for continued low interest rates. The Fed's quantitative easing measures have led to increased demand for Treasury bonds, pushing prices higher and yields lower. As a result, investors in the IBTD can benefit from potential capital appreciation and steady income generation through interest payments.


In addition, the economic uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions has further fueled demand for safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds. Investors are seeking protection against market volatility and potential inflation, making the IBTD an attractive investment option. The ETF's short-term maturity range limits interest rate risk, providing investors with a relatively stable investment while still offering potential for growth.


It's important to note that the IBTD's value is subject to changes in interest rates. As interest rates rise, bond prices tend to fall, and vice versa. However, given the Fed's continued commitment to low interest rates, the IBTD is well-positioned to navigate the current interest rate environment and provide investors with a reliable source of income and potential capital gains.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B3
Income StatementBa2C
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBa1B2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*An aggregate rating for an ETF summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the ETF. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the ETF, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the ETF's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

iShares iBonds Dec 2028: A Comprehensive Market Overview

The iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF (IBND) provides investors with exposure to a portfolio of US Treasury bonds maturing in December 2028. As a result, IBND offers a diversified way to gain exposure to the intermediate-term Treasury market. The fund's objective is to track the performance of the ICE BofA US Treasury 5-7 Year Bond Index, which measures the performance of US Treasury bonds with maturities ranging from five to seven years. IBND is managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors, one of the world's largest asset management firms.


IBND is a popular choice for investors seeking exposure to the Treasury market due to its low expense ratio and high liquidity. The fund has an expense ratio of just 0.15%, making it one of the most cost-effective ways to invest in Treasury bonds. Additionally, IBND is highly liquid, with an average daily trading volume of over $100 million. This liquidity allows investors to easily buy and sell shares of IBND without worrying about a lack of buyers or sellers.


The competitive landscape for IBND is relatively limited. There are a few other ETFs that offer exposure to the intermediate-term Treasury market. However, IBND is the largest and most liquid of these ETFs, making it the preferred choice for many investors. The fund's low expense ratio and high liquidity give it a significant advantage over its competitors.


Overall, IBND is a well-diversified and liquid ETF that provides investors with exposure to the intermediate-term Treasury market. The fund's low expense ratio and high liquidity make it an attractive option for investors seeking a cost-effective way to invest in Treasury bonds. The competitive landscape for IBND is relatively limited, with few other ETFs offering comparable exposure to the intermediate-term Treasury market.

iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF: Outlook Remains Positive


The iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ: IBOD), which tracks the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds maturing in December 2028, is poised for continued strength in the near term. The underlying fundamentals supporting the ETF remain robust, with low interest rates, a stable economic recovery, and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.


The Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy stance has kept interest rates at historically low levels, making longer-term bonds more attractive to investors. The central bank has signaled its intention to maintain this stance until inflation reaches its target level, providing a supportive environment for IBOD and other Treasury bond ETFs.


The U.S. economy is recovering steadily from the COVID-19 pandemic, bolstering investor confidence and reducing demand for riskier assets. As a result, investors are shifting towards safer investments such as IBOD, which offers exposure to Treasury bonds without the interest rate risk of longer-dated bonds.


In addition, the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, is driving demand for safe-haven assets. IBOD, with its focus on short-term Treasury bonds, provides a lower-risk option for investors seeking protection against volatility. The ETF's relatively short duration also limits its exposure to interest rate fluctuations, making it an attractive option in a rising rate environment.

iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF: Market Outlook and Recent Developments

The iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF (IBTD) is designed to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities in December 2028. As of the latest index data, the ETF has a duration of approximately 5.9 years and is currently yielding 4.06%. The ETF has a strong track record of performance, with an average annual return of 5.8% since inception.


In recent months, the ETF has seen increased inflows as investors seek the safety of U.S. Treasuries amidst market volatility. The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have pushed Treasury yields higher, making them more attractive to income-oriented investors. As the market anticipates a potential slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, the ETF could continue to attract inflows.


However, investors should be aware of the potential risks associated with the ETF. Interest rate risk is a key consideration, as changes in interest rates can impact the value of the ETF. Additionally, the ETF's duration of 5.9 years means that it is more sensitive to interest rate changes than shorter-term Treasury bond ETFs.


Overall, the iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF remains a solid choice for investors seeking the safety and income potential of U.S. Treasuries. However, investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment goals before investing in the ETF.

iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF Risk Assessment


The iShares® iBonds® Dec 2028 Term Treasury ETF (IBTD) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of approximately 20 years. IBTD is designed to provide investors with exposure to the U.S. Treasury market and to the potential for capital appreciation. However, IBTD is subject to certain risks that investors should consider before investing.


One of the primary risks associated with IBTD is interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is the risk that the value of IBTD will decline in response to changes in interest rates. Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions, so if interest rates rise, the value of IBTD is likely to decline. Interest rate risk is particularly relevant for IBTD because it invests in long-term Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes than short-term Treasury bonds.


Another risk associated with IBTD is credit risk. Credit risk is the risk that the U.S. government will not be able to repay its debt obligations. While the U.S. government has a strong credit rating, there is always the possibility that it could default on its debt. If the U.S. government defaults on its debt, the value of IBTD could decline significantly.


In addition to interest rate risk and credit risk, IBTD is also subject to other risks, such as liquidity risk, market risk, and inflation risk. Liquidity risk is the risk that IBTD may not be able to be sold quickly at a fair price. Market risk is the risk that the value of IBTD will decline due to changes in the overall stock market. Inflation risk is the risk that the value of IBTD will decline due to rising inflation.

References

  1. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  2. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  3. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
  4. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  5. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  7. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.