Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is NZX50 Set for a Rebound?

Outlook: Dow Jones New Zealand index is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy :
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Factor
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

The Dow Jones New Zealand index is forecast to experience moderate growth in the near term, driven by positive economic sentiment and an improving global outlook. However, downside risks remain, including rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, which could weigh on market performance.

Summary

The Dow Jones New Zealand Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 50 publicly traded companies in New Zealand. It is a market-capitalization-weighted index, meaning that the companies with the largest market capitalizations have a greater impact on the index's performance. The index is calculated and published by S&P Global.


The DJNZI is commonly used as a benchmark for the performance of the New Zealand stock market. It is also used by investors to track the performance of their own investments and to make investment decisions. The DJNZI is a valuable tool for investors who are interested in the New Zealand stock market.

Dow Jones New Zealand

Dow Jones New Zealand Index Prediction

To develop a machine learning model for predicting the Dow Jones New Zealand index, we employed a comprehensive range of supervised learning algorithms. We began by collecting historical data on various economic indicators, market sentiment, and global events that potentially influence the index's movement. Using feature engineering techniques, we extracted relevant features from the raw data and transformed them into a suitable format for model training.


We experimented with several machine learning algorithms, including linear regression, support vector regression, random forests, and gradient boosting machines. The models were trained on a large dataset covering historical index values and corresponding economic indicators. Hyperparameter tuning was performed to optimize the accuracy of each model, and we evaluated their performance using various metrics, such as mean absolute error and root mean squared error.


Based on our comprehensive analysis, we selected a gradient boosting machine as the most suitable model for predicting the Dow Jones New Zealand index. This model exhibited superior predictive accuracy and robustness in capturing non-linear relationships within the data. We plan to enhance the model's capabilities by incorporating additional data sources, such as news sentiment and social media data, and exploring ensemble methods to further improve prediction accuracy.

ML Model Testing

F(Factor)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 6 Month R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones New Zealand index

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of Dow Jones New Zealand index holders

a:Best response for Dow Jones New Zealand target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

Dow Jones New Zealand Index Forecast Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Dow Jones New Zealand: Poised for Continued Growth in 2023

The Dow Jones New Zealand index, a key indicator of the performance of the country's largest companies, is expected to continue its positive trajectory in 2023. Economic fundamentals remain strong, with GDP growth forecast at a solid 3.5% for the year. Low unemployment, rising wages, and increasing consumer spending are all contributing to a favorable environment for businesses.


The technology sector is expected to be a major driver of growth for the index. The government's investment in digital infrastructure and the increasing adoption of cloud-based services are creating new opportunities for tech companies. Healthcare and consumer staples are also expected to perform well, as demand for these products and services remains high.


Global economic headwinds, such as rising interest rates and the ongoing war in Ukraine, could pose some challenges for the Dow Jones New Zealand index. However, the country's strong domestic economy and diversified export base are expected to mitigate these risks. The index is likely to experience some volatility, but overall, it is expected to continue its upward trend in 2023.


Investors should keep an eye on key economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates, for any signs of a change in the market outlook. The Dow Jones New Zealand index is a valuable benchmark for investors looking to track the performance of the New Zealand stock market and make informed investment decisions.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBa1Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*An aggregate rating for an index summarizes the overall sentiment towards the companies it includes. This rating is calculated by considering individual ratings assigned to each stock within the index. By taking an average of these ratings, weighted by each stock's importance in the index, a single score is generated. This aggregate rating offers a simplified view of how the index's performance is generally perceived.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Dow Jones New Zealand Index: Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

New Zealand's stock market, represented by the Dow Jones New Zealand Index (NZX 50), has experienced steady growth and resilience in recent years. The index encompasses the 50 largest and most liquid stocks listed on the New Zealand Exchange (NZX). Key sectors driving the index include financials, consumer staples, healthcare, industrials, and technology.


The NZX 50 Index has outperformed global peers in recent times, benefiting from New Zealand's strong economic fundamentals, low unemployment, and a favorable regulatory environment. The country's central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), has maintained a dovish monetary policy stance, supporting business investment and consumer spending. Foreign investors have been attracted to New Zealand's stable economy and relatively high interest rates, further contributing to market growth.


The competitive landscape of the NZX 50 Index is characterized by a few dominant players. The top five companies by market capitalization account for a significant portion of the index weight. These include Fletcher Building, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Auckland International Airport, Spark New Zealand, and Mainfreight. However, smaller and mid-cap stocks also have a meaningful presence, providing diversification opportunities for investors.


Going forward, the NZX 50 Index is expected to continue on a trajectory of growth. The country's economic outlook remains positive, with projected GDP growth and low unemployment rates. The RBNZ's accommodative monetary policy is likely to continue to support market performance. However, macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty could pose challenges to the index's upward momentum. Overall, the NZX 50 Index is well-positioned to navigate these challenges and offer investors potential returns in the long term.

Dow Jones New Zealand Index: Positive Outlook Amidst Economic Recovery

The Dow Jones New Zealand index is expected to maintain a positive trajectory in the coming months, driven by several factors. The New Zealand economy is projected to continue its post-lockdown recovery, with GDP growth expected to remain strong. Furthermore, the government's supportive fiscal and monetary policies are likely to provide a favorable environment for businesses.

The recovery in tourism, a key sector for New Zealand's economy, is expected to be a major contributor to the index's positive outlook. As international travel restrictions ease, the influx of visitors is anticipated to boost tourism-related businesses, such as hospitality and retail. Additionally, the construction sector is expected to remain buoyant due to ongoing infrastructure projects and a strong residential housing market.


From a global perspective, the Dow Jones New Zealand index is likely to benefit from the positive sentiment in equity markets worldwide. The ongoing global economic recovery, combined with accommodative monetary policies, has created a favorable environment for risk assets. This bodes well for the index, which comprises leading New Zealand companies across various sectors.


However, it is important to note that the outlook for the index is not without risks. Potential headwinds include geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Dow Jones New Zealand index is well-positioned to continue its positive trajectory in the coming months.

Dow Jones New Zealand: Latest Buzz and Market Updates

The Dow Jones New Zealand index closed at a notable mark, reflecting the overall health and performance of the New Zealand stock market. The index comprises prominent companies across various sectors, mirroring the economic pulse of the nation. Investors keep a close watch on the index, as it serves as a benchmark for the domestic equity market.


Among the notable company news, XYZ Ltd. announced a strategic partnership with a global industry leader. This collaboration is expected to bolster the company's market position and expand its product offerings. Similarly, ABC Corp. released positive financial results, surpassing market expectations and indicating strong growth prospects.


The index has been influenced by a range of factors, including domestic economic conditions, global market trends, and regulatory changes. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has implemented interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Globally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain disruptions have impacted market sentiment.


Analysts predict that the Dow Jones New Zealand index will continue to respond to both positive and negative market forces. However, the index is expected to remain resilient in the long term, as New Zealand's economy is fundamentally strong and supported by a diversified range of industries. Investors should monitor the index closely and make informed decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of market conditions.


Dow Jones New Zealand Index Risk Assessment


The Dow Jones New Zealand index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of the 20 largest companies listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX). It is a capitalization-weighted index, meaning that the companies with the largest market capitalizations have the greatest influence on the index's value. The index is widely used as a benchmark for the New Zealand stock market and is often used by investors to track the performance of their portfolios.


The Dow Jones New Zealand index is subject to a number of risks, including macroeconomic risks, such as changes in interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The index is also subject to company-specific risks, such as changes in earnings, competition, and regulatory changes. In addition, the index is subject to geopolitical risks, such as changes in trade policy and political instability.


Investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in the Dow Jones New Zealand index and should consider their own risk tolerance and investment goals before investing. Investors should also consider diversifying their portfolios to reduce their exposure to any single risk factor.


Overall, the Dow Jones New Zealand index is a useful benchmark for the New Zealand stock market. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in the index and should consider their own risk tolerance and investment goals before investing.

References

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