Buy or Sell: FCX Stock

Short - term price movements, contribute a considerable measure to the unpredictability of the securities exchanges. Accurately predicting the price fluctuations in stock market is a huge economical advantage. The aforementioned task is generally achieved by analyzing the company, this is called as fundamental analysis. Another method, which is undergoing a lot of research work recently, is to create a predictive algorithmic model using machine learning. To train machines to take trading decisions in such short - period of time, the latter method needs to be adopted. Deep Neural Networks, being the most exceptional innovation in Machine Learning, have been utilized to develop a short-term prediction model. We evaluate Freeport-McMoRan prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FCX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FCX stock.

Keywords: FCX, Freeport-McMoRan, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

FCX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market forecasting is considered to be a challenging topic among time series forecasting. This study proposes a novel two-stage ensemble machine learning model named SVR-ENANFIS for stock price prediction by combining features of support vector regression (SVR) and ensemble adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ENANFIS). We consider Freeport-McMoRan Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FCX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FCX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FCX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FCX Freeport-McMoRan
Time series to forecast n: 15 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FCX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Freeport-McMoRan assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FCX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FCX stock.

Financial State Forecast for FCX Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Baa2
Operational Risk	86	78
Market Risk	88	74
Technical Analysis	43	61
Fundamental Analysis	31	86
Risk Unsystematic	30	75

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 664 signals.

References

1. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
2. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
3. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
4. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
5. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
6. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
7. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FCX stock?
A: FCX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is FCX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FCX Stock.
Q: Is Freeport-McMoRan stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Freeport-McMoRan is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FCX stock?
A: The consensus rating for FCX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FCX stock?
A: The prediction period for FCX is (n+6 month)

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