Can neural networks predict stock market? (EXEL Stock Forecast)

Nowadays, the stock market's prediction is a topic that attracted researchers in the world. Stock market prediction is a process that requires a comprehensive understanding of the data stock movement and analysis it accurately. Therefore, it needs intelligent methods to deal with this task to ensure that the prediction is as correct as possible, which will return profitable benefits to investors. The main goal of this article is the employment of effective machine learning techniques to build a strong model for stock market prediction. We evaluate Exelixis prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EXEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXEL stock.

Keywords: EXEL, Exelixis, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

EXEL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We consider Exelixis Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of EXEL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EXEL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EXEL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EXEL Exelixis
Time series to forecast n: 10 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXEL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Exelixis assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EXEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXEL stock.

Financial State Forecast for EXEL Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B1
Operational Risk	33	82
Market Risk	58	65
Technical Analysis	64	71
Fundamental Analysis	57	38
Risk Unsystematic	37	48

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 651 signals.

References

1. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
2. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
3. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
5. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
6. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
7. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EXEL stock?
A: EXEL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is EXEL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EXEL Stock.
Q: Is Exelixis stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Exelixis is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EXEL stock?
A: The consensus rating for EXEL is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for EXEL stock?
A: The prediction period for EXEL is (n+3 month)

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