Can neural networks predict stock market? (BAX Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Baxter International prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BAX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BAX stock.

Keywords: BAX, Baxter International, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. What is neural prediction?
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

BAX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Baxter International Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BAX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BAX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BAX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BAX Baxter International
Time series to forecast n: 07 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BAX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Baxter International assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BAX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BAX stock.

Financial State Forecast for BAX Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba3
Operational Risk	36	60
Market Risk	87	50
Technical Analysis	83	65
Fundamental Analysis	35	83
Risk Unsystematic	66	59

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

1. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
2. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
3. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
4. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
6. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
7. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BAX stock?
A: BAX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is BAX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BAX Stock.
Q: Is Baxter International stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Baxter International is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BAX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BAX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BAX stock?
A: The prediction period for BAX is (n+8 weeks)

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