Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate Cirrus Logic prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CRUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CRUS stock.

Keywords: CRUS, Cirrus Logic, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Trading Interaction
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Market Signals

## CRUS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market trading is an activity in which investors need fast and accurate information to make effective decisions. Since many stocks are traded on a stock exchange, numerous factors influence the decision-making process. Moreover, the behaviour of stock prices is uncertain and hard to predict. For these reasons, stock price prediction is an important process and a challenging one. We consider Cirrus Logic Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of CRUS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CRUS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CRUS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CRUS Cirrus Logic
Time series to forecast n: 09 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CRUS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Cirrus Logic assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CRUS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CRUS stock.

### Financial State Forecast for CRUS Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 6790
Market Risk5955
Technical Analysis6559
Fundamental Analysis7246
Risk Unsystematic5641

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 492 signals.

## References

1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
2. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
3. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
4. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
5. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
6. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
7. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CRUS stock?
A: CRUS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is CRUS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CRUS Stock.
Q: Is Cirrus Logic stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cirrus Logic is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CRUS stock?
A: The consensus rating for CRUS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CRUS stock?
A: The prediction period for CRUS is (n+8 weeks)

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