Can stock prices be predicted? (WTW Stock Forecast)

Prediction of the trend of the stock market is very crucial. If someone has robust forecasting tools, then he/she will increase the return on investment and can get rich easily and quickly. Because there are a lot of factors that can influence the stock market, the stock forecasting problem has always been very complicated. Support Vector Regression is a tool from machine learning that can build a regression model on the historical time series data in the purpose of predicting the future trend of the stock price. We evaluate Willis Towers Watson prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the WTW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WTW stock.

Keywords: WTW, Willis Towers Watson, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Investment Risk
3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

WTW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. We consider Willis Towers Watson Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of WTW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of WTW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

WTW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: WTW Willis Towers Watson
Time series to forecast n: 15 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WTW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Willis Towers Watson assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the WTW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WTW stock.

Financial State Forecast for WTW Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B3
Operational Risk	50	37
Market Risk	57	41
Technical Analysis	48	79
Fundamental Analysis	44	51
Risk Unsystematic	40	33

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 692 signals.

References

1. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
2. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
3. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
4. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
5. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
6. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
7. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for WTW stock?
A: WTW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is WTW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WTW Stock.
Q: Is Willis Towers Watson stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Willis Towers Watson is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of WTW stock?
A: The consensus rating for WTW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for WTW stock?
A: The prediction period for WTW is (n+8 weeks)

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