Modelling A.I. in Economics

Does algo trading work? (LON:WEB Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. We evaluate WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:WEB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:WEB stock.


Keywords: LON:WEB, WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is prediction model?
  2. Trading Signals
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

LON:WEB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We consider WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:WEB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:WEB stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:WEB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:WEB WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 27 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:WEB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:WEB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:WEB stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:WEB Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 7281
Market Risk5386
Technical Analysis6146
Fundamental Analysis4860
Risk Unsystematic5747

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 466 signals.

References

  1. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  2. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  3. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  4. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  5. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  6. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  7. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:WEB stock?
A: LON:WEB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Beta
Q: Is LON:WEB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:WEB Stock.
Q: Is WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WEBIS HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:WEB stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:WEB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:WEB stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:WEB is (n+6 month)

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