How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We evaluate Euro Stoxx 50 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock.
Keywords: Euro Stoxx 50 Index, Euro Stoxx 50 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.
Key Points
- What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
- Why do we need predictive models?
- What is neural prediction?
Euro Stoxx 50 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology
How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We consider Euro Stoxx 50 Index Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4
F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks)
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock
j:Nash equilibria
k:Dominated move
a:Best response for target price
For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:
How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?
Euro Stoxx 50 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)
Sample Set: Neural NetworkStock/Index: Euro Stoxx 50 Index Euro Stoxx 50 Index
Time series to forecast n: 15 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock.
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%
Conclusions
Euro Stoxx 50 Index assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock.
Financial State Forecast for Euro Stoxx 50 Index Stock Options & Futures
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | B3 | Ba3 |
| Operational Risk | 58 | 89 |
| Market Risk | 50 | 32 |
| Technical Analysis | 36 | 67 |
| Fundamental Analysis | 39 | 58 |
| Risk Unsystematic | 60 | 59 |
Prediction Confidence Score
References
- Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
- M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
- Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
- J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
- Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
- Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the prediction methodology for Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock?A: Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Euro Stoxx 50 Index Stock.
Q: Is Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Euro Stoxx 50 Index is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Euro Stoxx 50 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Euro Stoxx 50 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Euro Stoxx 50 Index is (n+8 weeks)