In this paper a Bayesian regularized artificial neural network is proposed as a novel method to forecast financial market behavior. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilized as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of individual stocks. The prediction of stock price movement is generally considered to be a challenging and important task for financial time series analysis. We evaluate General Dynamics prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GD stock.

Keywords: GD, General Dynamics, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Nash Equilibria
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## GD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. We consider General Dynamics Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of GD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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## GD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GD General Dynamics
Time series to forecast n: 12 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

General Dynamics assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GD stock.

### Financial State Forecast for GD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 7281
Market Risk5955
Technical Analysis6675
Fundamental Analysis6732
Risk Unsystematic4550

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 866 signals.

## References

1. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
2. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
4. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
5. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
6. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
7. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GD stock?
A: GD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is GD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GD Stock.
Q: Is General Dynamics stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for General Dynamics is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GD stock?
A: The consensus rating for GD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GD stock?
A: The prediction period for GD is (n+4 weeks)

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