How do you know when a stock will go up or down? (NSE ITC Stock Forecast)

With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We evaluate ITC Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE ITC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ITC stock.

Keywords: NSE ITC, ITC Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
2. Trust metric by Neural Network
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

NSE ITC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. This paper will showcase how to perform stock prediction using Machine Learning algorithms. We consider ITC Limited Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE ITC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE ITC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE ITC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE ITC ITC Limited
Time series to forecast n: 28 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ITC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

ITC Limited assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE ITC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ITC stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE ITC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Baa2
Operational Risk	76	85
Market Risk	84	89
Technical Analysis	62	88
Fundamental Analysis	61	85
Risk Unsystematic	38	64

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 880 signals.

References

1. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
2. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
4. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
5. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
6. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
7. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE ITC stock?
A: NSE ITC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is NSE ITC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ITC Stock.
Q: Is ITC Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ITC Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE ITC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE ITC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE ITC stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE ITC is (n+3 month)

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