Is NMIH Stock Buy or Sell? (Stock Forecast)

This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction. We evaluate NMI HOLDINGS CMN A prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NMIH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NMIH stock.

Keywords: NMIH, NMI HOLDINGS CMN A, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Prediction Modeling
3. Prediction Modeling

NMIH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We consider NMI HOLDINGS CMN A Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NMIH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NMIH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NMIH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NMIH NMI HOLDINGS CMN A
Time series to forecast n: 22 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NMIH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

NMI HOLDINGS CMN A assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NMIH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NMIH stock.

Financial State Forecast for NMIH Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Operational Risk	78	68
Market Risk	57	66
Technical Analysis	40	73
Fundamental Analysis	87	84
Risk Unsystematic	53	36

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 648 signals.

References

1. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
2. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
3. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
4. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
5. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
6. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NMIH stock?
A: NMIH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is NMIH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NMIH Stock.
Q: Is NMI HOLDINGS CMN A stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NMI HOLDINGS CMN A is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NMIH stock?
A: The consensus rating for NMIH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NMIH stock?
A: The prediction period for NMIH is (n+6 month)

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