Machine Learning stock prediction: FTSE 100 Index Stock Prediction


Abstract

We evaluate FTSE 100 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FTSE 100 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FTSE 100 Index stock.


Keywords: FTSE 100 Index, FTSE 100 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. How do you pick a stock?

FTSE 100 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FTSE 100 Index Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of FTSE 100 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FTSE 100 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FTSE 100 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FTSE 100 Index FTSE 100 Index
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FTSE 100 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

FTSE 100 Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FTSE 100 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FTSE 100 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for FTSE 100 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 7982
Market Risk3736
Technical Analysis6162
Fundamental Analysis7251
Risk Unsystematic3766

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 607 signals.

References

  1. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  3. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  4. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  5. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  6. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  7. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FTSE 100 Index stock?
A: FTSE 100 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is FTSE 100 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FTSE 100 Index Stock.
Q: Is FTSE 100 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FTSE 100 Index is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FTSE 100 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for FTSE 100 Index is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FTSE 100 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for FTSE 100 Index is (n+8 weeks)

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