Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate POPULAR, INC. prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BPOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BPOP stock.

Keywords: BPOP, POPULAR, INC., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Why do we need predictive models?
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. Stock Rating

## BPOP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We consider POPULAR, INC. Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BPOP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BPOP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BPOP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BPOP POPULAR, INC.
Time series to forecast n: 17 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BPOP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

POPULAR, INC. assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BPOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BPOP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for BPOP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 3375
Market Risk7832
Technical Analysis7584
Fundamental Analysis4680
Risk Unsystematic3172

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 466 signals.

## References

1. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
2. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
3. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
4. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
5. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
6. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
7. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BPOP stock?
A: BPOP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is BPOP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BPOP Stock.
Q: Is POPULAR, INC. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for POPULAR, INC. is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BPOP stock?
A: The consensus rating for BPOP is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BPOP stock?
A: The prediction period for BPOP is (n+4 weeks)