## Abstract

We evaluate Confluent prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CFLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CFLT stock.

Keywords: CFLT, Confluent, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. Can neural networks predict stock market?

## CFLT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Confluent Stock Decision Process with Independent T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of CFLT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CFLT stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CFLT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CFLT Confluent
Time series to forecast n: 08 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CFLT stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Confluent assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CFLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CFLT stock.

### Financial State Forecast for CFLT Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Operational Risk 7468
Market Risk4090
Technical Analysis8585
Fundamental Analysis8931
Risk Unsystematic3177

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 523 signals.

## References

1. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
3. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
4. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
5. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
6. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
7. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CFLT stock?
A: CFLT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is CFLT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CFLT Stock.
Q: Is Confluent stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Confluent is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CFLT stock?
A: The consensus rating for CFLT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CFLT stock?
A: The prediction period for CFLT is (n+1 year)