When should you buy or sell a stock? (LON:BLVN Stock Forecast)


The main objective of this research is to predict the market performance on day closing using different machine learning techniques. The prediction model uses different attributes as an input and predicts market as Positive & Negative. We evaluate BOWLEVEN PLC prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BLVN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BLVN stock.


Keywords: LON:BLVN, BOWLEVEN PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Investment Risk

LON:BLVN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We consider BOWLEVEN PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BLVN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BLVN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BLVN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BLVN BOWLEVEN PLC
Time series to forecast n: 22 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BLVN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

BOWLEVEN PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BLVN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BLVN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:BLVN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 8977
Market Risk5490
Technical Analysis3544
Fundamental Analysis3982
Risk Unsystematic8531

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 725 signals.

References

  1. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  2. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  3. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  5. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  6. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  7. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BLVN stock?
A: LON:BLVN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:BLVN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BLVN Stock.
Q: Is BOWLEVEN PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BOWLEVEN PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BLVN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BLVN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BLVN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BLVN is (n+16 weeks)

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