Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy or Sell: SET Index Stock (Forecast)

This paper examines the theory and practice of regression techniques for prediction of stock price trend by using a transformed data set in ordinal data format. The original pretransformed data source contains data of heterogeneous data types used for handling of currency values and financial ratios. The data formats in currency values and financial ratios provide a process for computation of stock prices. The transformed data set contains only a standardized ordinal data type which provides a process to measure rankings of stock price trends. We evaluate SET Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SET Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SET Index stock.


Keywords: SET Index , SET Index , stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. Decision Making

SET Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Different machine learning algorithms are discussed in this literature review. These algorithms can be used for predicting the stock market. The prediction of the stock market is one of the challenging tasks that must have to be handled. In this paper, it is discussed how the machine learning algorithms can be used for predicting the stock value. We consider SET Index Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of SET Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SET Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SET Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SET Index SET Index
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SET Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

SET Index assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SET Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SET Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for SET Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B1
Operational Risk 4932
Market Risk7740
Technical Analysis7184
Fundamental Analysis8450
Risk Unsystematic7674

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 698 signals.

References

  1. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  3. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
  4. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  5. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SET Index stock?
A: SET Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is SET Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SET Index Stock.
Q: Is SET Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SET Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SET Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for SET Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SET Index stock?
A: The prediction period for SET Index is (n+16 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.