Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy, Sell, or Hold? (GLW Stock Forecast)

In today's economy, there is a profound impact of the stock market or equity market. Prediction of stock prices is extremely complex, chaotic, and the presence of a dynamic environment makes it a great challenge. Behavioural finance suggests that decision-making process of investors is to a very great extent influenced by the emotions and sentiments in response to a particular news. Thus, to support the decisions of the investors, we have presented an approach combining two distinct fields for analysis of stock exchange. We evaluate Corning prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GLW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GLW stock.


Keywords: GLW, Corning, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  3. Market Outlook

GLW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We consider Corning Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of GLW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GLW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GLW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GLW Corning
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GLW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Corning assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GLW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GLW stock.

Financial State Forecast for GLW Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Operational Risk 8942
Market Risk6472
Technical Analysis8776
Fundamental Analysis8866
Risk Unsystematic7766

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 473 signals.

References

  1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  2. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  4. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  5. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  6. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  7. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GLW stock?
A: GLW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is GLW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GLW Stock.
Q: Is Corning stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Corning is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GLW stock?
A: The consensus rating for GLW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GLW stock?
A: The prediction period for GLW is (n+1 year)

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