Can stock prices be predicted? (AXON Stock Forecast)

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We evaluate Axon Enterprise prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXON stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXON stock.

Keywords: AXON, Axon Enterprise, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. Why do we need predictive models?
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

AXON Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We consider Axon Enterprise Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AXON stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXON stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AXON Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AXON Axon Enterprise
Time series to forecast n: 20 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXON stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Axon Enterprise assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXON stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXON stock.

Financial State Forecast for AXON Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Operational Risk	39	33
Market Risk	68	75
Technical Analysis	54	44
Fundamental Analysis	68	59
Risk Unsystematic	38	41

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 817 signals.

References

1. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
2. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
3. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
4. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
5. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
6. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
7. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AXON stock?
A: AXON stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is AXON stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AXON Stock.
Q: Is Axon Enterprise stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Axon Enterprise is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AXON stock?
A: The consensus rating for AXON is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AXON stock?
A: The prediction period for AXON is (n+3 month)

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