Can stock prices be predicted? (LON:86IP Stock Forecast)

The stock market prediction has attracted much attention from academia as well as business. Due to the non-linear, volatile and complex nature of the market, it is quite difficult to predict. As the stock markets grow bigger, more investors pay attention to develop a systematic approach to predict the stock market. We evaluate WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:86IP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:86IP stock.

Keywords: LON:86IP, WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is neural prediction?
2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
3. Can statistics predict the future?

LON:86IP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We consider WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:86IP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:86IP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:86IP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:86IP WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:86IP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:86IP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:86IP stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:86IP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba3
Operational Risk	55	73
Market Risk	68	60
Technical Analysis	84	70
Fundamental Analysis	65	81
Risk Unsystematic	79	32

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 724 signals.

References

1. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
2. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
3. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
4. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
5. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
6. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
7. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:86IP stock?
A: LON:86IP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:86IP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:86IP Stock.
Q: Is WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WITAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:86IP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:86IP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:86IP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:86IP is (n+3 month)

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