Can stock prices be predicted? (US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Forecast)

Stock market is a promising financial investment that can generate great wealth. However, the volatile nature of the stock market makes it a very high risk investment. Thus, a lot of researchers have contributed their efforts to forecast the stock market pricing and average movement. Researchers have used various methods in computer science and economics in their quests to gain a piece of this volatile information and make great fortune out of the stock market investment. This paper investigates various techniques for the stock market prediction using artificial neural network (ANN). We evaluate US Small Cap 2000 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

Keywords: US Small Cap 2000 Index, US Small Cap 2000 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Dominated Move
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. Market Risk

US Small Cap 2000 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning is a branch of computer science that has the potential to transform epidemiologic sciences. Amid a growing focus on "Big Data," it offers epidemiologists new tools to tackle problems for which classical methods are not well-suited. In order to critically evaluate the value of integrating machine learning algorithms and existing methods, however, it is essential to address language and technical barriers between the two fields that can make it difficult for epidemiologists to read and assess machine learning studies. We consider US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: US Small Cap 2000 Index US Small Cap 2000 Index
Time series to forecast n: 17 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

US Small Cap 2000 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba2
Operational Risk	63	80
Market Risk	77	39
Technical Analysis	78	45
Fundamental Analysis	32	86
Risk Unsystematic	64	85

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 872 signals.

References

1. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
2. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
3. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
4. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
6. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
7. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: US Small Cap 2000 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock.
Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index is (n+8 weeks)

Premium

• Live broadcast of expert trader insights
• Real-time stock market analysis
• Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
• Real-time updates
• In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login