Security indices are the main tools for evaluation of the status of financial markets. Moreover, a main part of the economy of any country is constituted of investment in stock markets. Therefore, investors could maximize the return of investment if it becomes possible to predict the future trend of stock market with appropriate methods. The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of financial series make their prediction complicated. This study seeks to evaluate the prediction power of machine-learning models in a stock market. We evaluate Compass Group prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPG stock.

Keywords: CPG, Compass Group, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. What is prediction in deep learning?

## CPG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. We consider Compass Group Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CPG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CPG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## CPG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CPG Compass Group
Time series to forecast n: 04 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Compass Group assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CPG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPG stock.

### Financial State Forecast for CPG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 7762
Market Risk3758
Technical Analysis6263
Fundamental Analysis6330
Risk Unsystematic6156

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 718 signals.

## References

1. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
2. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
4. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
5. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
6. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CPG stock?
A: CPG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is CPG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPG Stock.
Q: Is Compass Group stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Compass Group is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CPG stock?
A: The consensus rating for CPG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CPG stock?
A: The prediction period for CPG is (n+1 year)