Modelling A.I. in Economics

Gates Stock Forecast & Analysis (Forecast)

We present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices, particularly with respect to the forecast of their trend movements up or down. Exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, we provide numerical analysis of concrete financial time series. In particular, after a brief r ́esum ́e of the existing literature on the subject, we consider the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Net- works (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks techniques. We evaluate Gates prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GTES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTES stock.


Keywords: GTES, Gates, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Market Signals
  3. Can machine learning predict?

GTES Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We consider Gates Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of GTES stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GTES stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GTES Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GTES Gates
Time series to forecast n: 17 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTES stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Gates assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GTES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTES stock.

Financial State Forecast for GTES Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 5149
Market Risk6041
Technical Analysis4843
Fundamental Analysis5476
Risk Unsystematic8845

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 807 signals.

References

  1. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  2. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  3. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  4. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  5. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  6. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  7. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GTES stock?
A: GTES stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is GTES stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold GTES Stock.
Q: Is Gates stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Gates is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GTES stock?
A: The consensus rating for GTES is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for GTES stock?
A: The prediction period for GTES is (n+1 year)

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