Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you determine buy or sell? (AM Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The main objective of this research is to predict the market performance on day closing using different machine learning techniques. The prediction model uses different attributes as an input and predicts market as Positive & Negative. We evaluate Antero Midstream prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AM stock.


Keywords: AM, Antero Midstream, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. Trading Signals
  3. Decision Making

AM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. We consider Antero Midstream Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AM Antero Midstream
Time series to forecast n: 09 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Antero Midstream assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AM stock.

Financial State Forecast for AM Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Baa2
Operational Risk 6686
Market Risk5485
Technical Analysis4773
Fundamental Analysis8788
Risk Unsystematic7557

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 735 signals.

References

  1. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  2. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  3. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  4. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  6. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  7. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AM stock?
A: AM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is AM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AM Stock.
Q: Is Antero Midstream stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Antero Midstream is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AM stock?
A: The consensus rating for AM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AM stock?
A: The prediction period for AM is (n+8 weeks)

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